Globalization, Trade, and the Task Content of U.S. Employment

目前，全球经济结构正在发生转变，其方式将对世界各地的生产地点、工作性质和经济福祉产生深远影响。全球化的早期阶段以最终产品的国际交换为特征，无论是以港口换取小麦还是以汽车换取服装，导致了按行业分类的空间分工。相比之下，本轮全球化正在分离曾经整合在公司和行业内部的生产任务，将它们转移到世界各地。为了理解这种转变对美国经济的影响，需要更多地了解哪些任务可以“离岸”，哪些任务可能仍然局限于地方。这项研究项目的目的是衡量贸易如何影响美国经济的任务结构。虽然任务贸易的理论模型最近才得到发展，但由于缺乏适当的数据，实证探索受到了严重的限制。调查人员将创建一个独特的数据集，通过将详细的美国人口普查微观数据联系起来，来衡量任务贸易的影响，这些数据描述了贸易流程、公司、工人和他们所从事的任务。这些数据将使研究人员能够探索三个主要问题：(1)贸易对美国经济任务结构的影响？(2)贸易导致的失业与职业分析和人际关系的复杂性有什么关系？(3)在过去15年里，美国经济中任务的国家以下地理位置发生了怎样的变化，这些变化与贸易的地区影响和当地生产系统的特点有什么关系？在当今高度相互联系的世界里，贸易模式与经济表现和工作地理位置密切相关。该项目将增进有关全球贸易体系从以交换最终产品为前提转变为以交换迅速增加的一系列中间产品和服务为重点的科学知识。该项目将衡量贸易性质的变化对美国经济工作结构的影响，以及这种变化在美国各地区的不同影响。该项目的结果将有助于确定那些对贸易竞争有利的工作的性质，以及那些可能越来越多地位于海外的自由活动。该项目还将有助于教育和劳动经济学等领域正在进行的关于发达经济体21世纪工人所需准备工作的辩论。

The structure of the global economy currently is being transformed in ways that will have profound implications for the location of production, the nature of work, and economic well-being around the world. Early stages of globalization were characterized by the international exchange of final products, whether port for wheat or automobiles for apparel, resulting in a spatial division of labor that was sorted by industry. In contrast, the current round of globalization is separating production tasks once integrated within firms and industries, shifting them to locations around the world. To understand the implications of this shift for the U.S. economy, greater understanding is needed about tasks that can be "offshored" and which are likely to remain place-bound. The objective of this research project is to measure how trade has impacted the task structure of the U.S. economy. While theoretical models of task trade have recently been developed, empirical exploration has been severely limited by lack of appropriate data. The investigators will create a unique dataset suited to measuring the impact of task trade by linking detailed U.S. Census microdata that describe trade flows, firms, workers and the tasks in which they are engaged. These data will enable the researchers to explore three primary questions: (1) What is the impact of trade on the task structure of the U.S. economy? (2) How is trade-induced job loss related to the analytic and interpersonal complexity of occupations? (3) How has the subnational geography of tasks shifted in the U.S. economy over the last fifteen years, and how are these shifts related to the regional impacts of trade and the characteristics of local production systems?In today's highly interconnected world, patterns of trade are closely linked to economic performance and the geography of work. This project will improve scientific knowledge regarding the transformation of the global system of trade from one premised on exchanges of final goods to one focused on the exchange of a rapidly increasing array of intermediate goods and services. The project will measure the impact of the changing nature of trade on the structure of work in the U.S. economy and the differential effect of that change across U.S. regions. The results of this project will help to identify the nature of jobs that are robust to trade competition and those footloose activities that are likely to be increasingly located offshore. The project also will contribute to ongoing debates in fields like education and labor economics regarding the preparation required for 21st century workers in advanced economies.