GOALI: A Phased Approach for Investigating Trust and Trustworthiness in Forecast Information Sharing

这项拨款为确定信任在预测信息共享中的作用提供资金。例如，考虑制造商（如惠普）向零售商（如百思买）征求预测信息的过程。制造商使用这些预测信息来计划生产和产能。当沟通不具有约束力时，零售商有动机夸大需求预测以确保充足的供应。缺乏可信的信息共享导致了有据可查的灾难性后果。然而，一些公司即使在沟通不具有约束力的情况下也能可靠地分享信息。在本研究中，预测数学模型和人类受试者实验将被开发，以确定企业之间的信任和可信度水平如何影响预测信息共享和决策。这些模型将用经验数据进行验证，以确保其预测行动的适用性和能力。本文的主要目标是建立对战略预测信息共享中信任和可信赖性的科学认识。一种新的数学理论将被开发出来，以建立信任模型，并增强新古典经济模型（如博弈论），该模型假设人类基于自利动机的金钱回报做出决策。新理论将提供一个框架来估计信任水平（制造商对供应商信息的信任程度）和可信度（阻止零售商夸大预测信息的可信度）。这个新模型将有助于制定政策，以更好地协调预测信息共享和优化决策，例如能力投资。该研究将确定信任何时可以促进合作以及信任行为如何改变企业。S预测管理和合同策略。可以想象，这项研究还可能有助于开发一种新的合同设计范式，其中包括对信任、非金钱问题和人类情感的考虑。由于这个项目是与惠普公司合作的，其成果很可能被转化为商业实践。

This grant provides funding for determining the role of trust in forecast information sharing. Consider, for example, the process through which a manufacturer (such as Hewlett-Packard) solicits forecast information from a retailer (such as BestBuy). The manufacturer uses this forecast information to plan for production and capacity. When the communication is non-binding, the retailer has an incentive to inflate demand forecast to assure abundant supply. The lack of credible information sharing leads to well-documented catastrophic outcomes. Yet, some firms manage to share information credibly even when communication is non-binding. In this research, predictive mathematical models and human-subject experiments will be developed to determine how the level of trust and trustworthiness among firms affect forecast information sharing and decision-making. These models will be validated with empirical data to ensure their applicability and abilities in predicting actions.The primary goal is to develop a scientific understanding of trust and trustworthiness in strategic forecast information sharing. A new mathematical theory will be developed to model trust and enhance the neoclassical economic models (such as, game-theory) that assume humans make decisions based on pecuniary payoffs with self-interested motives. The new theory will provide a framework to estimate the level of trust (that the manufacturer has for the supplier's information) and trustworthiness (that impedes the retailer to inflate forecast information). This new model will help prescribe policies to better coordinate forecast information sharing and optimize decisions, such as capacity investment. The research will determine when trust can facilitate cooperation and how trusting behavior alters a firm?s forecast management and contracting strategy.Conceivably, this research may also help develop a new paradigm in designing contracts that include considerations of trust, non-pecuniary issues and human emotions. Since this project is in collaboration with Hewlett Packard, the results is likely to be transferred into business practices.