CMG Collaborative Research: Non-assimilation Fusion of Data and Models

pi将开发一种方法来改进对动力系统状态的估计和预测，特别侧重于分析海洋动力学。因此，该项目的主要目标是开发使用模糊集公式表示和操纵数据不确定性和模型误差的创新方法，然后将这些方法应用于作为全局优化问题制定的数据和模型融合。利用高性能并行计算，将开发出方便快捷的数值算法来解决这一问题。这种方法不同于通常的统计估计，但有其自身的优点和缺点。一般数学理论将应用于一个长期存在但重要的问题，即改进对海洋状况的估计和预测。特别是，该研究的目标是通过融合卫星观测、低分辨率浮子和船载数据以及加利福尼亚中部的ROMS模拟结果，综合亚中尺度/中尺度锋面、急流和涡流。该理论将为海洋学、气象学、气候学、人工智能、计算机科学、控制工程、决策理论、专家系统、运筹学和模式识别等领域的应用提供新的工具。作为将这些工具用于更广泛的海洋学社区目标的第一步，将与英国和德国的科学家合作，将融合方法应用于不同的数据库，以了解和量化北大西洋的热量储存和碳含量，并允许初级科学家在具有重大科学和实践重要性的跨学科/多学科领域获得优秀的培训和学习。这些指数将解决一个长期存在但重要的问题，涉及改进对海洋状况的估计和预测。该项目的主要目标是开发一种创新的方法来表示和操纵来自各种来源的不确定性，如传感器输出、模型输出、汇总专家意见以及合并不同的数据库和数据，即使不同的信息片段是相互矛盾的，并建议在决策目标中融合这些信息的方法。这项研究将为这个问题提供新的数学理论和工具，同时也为海洋学、气象学和气候学提供更广泛的应用。在数学上，该方法使用起源于纯数学的模糊集公式，该公式将适用于表示和操纵数据不确定性和海洋模型误差。这项工作的结果将促进在模糊集方面的新预报指标的发展，以及通过在天气和气候尺度上的数据-模型和模式-模型比较来量化模式可预测性的新方法。作为将这些工具用于更广泛的海洋学社区目标的第一步，该方法将应用于与量化北大西洋热量储存和碳含量有关的不同数据库。pi将与来自英国和德国的科学家合作。参与该项目的青年科学家将在具有重大科学和实践意义的跨学科/多学科领域获得良好的培训和学习。

The PIs will develop a methodology for improving estimate and prediction of the state of a dynamical system, with particular focus on analyzing ocean dynamics. The primary goals of this project are thus to develop innovative approaches for representation and manipulation of data uncertainty and model error using a fuzzy set formulation and to then apply these approaches for the data and model fusion formulated as the global optimization problem. Convenient and fast numerical algorithms will be developed to solve the problem using high-performance parallel computing. Such an approach differs from usual statistical estimates but with advantages and drawbacks of its own. The general mathematical theory will be applied to a long-standing but important problem of improving estimates and prediction of the state of the ocean. In particular, the proposed study targets a synthesis of submesoscale/mesoscale fronts, jets and eddies by fusing satellite observations, float and shipboard data of lower resolution, as well as ROMS simulation results for Central California. The theory should provide new tools to be applied in oceanography, meteorology, climatology, artificial intelligence, computer science, control engineering, decision theory, expert systems, operational research and pattern recognition. As the first step in using these tools for broader oceanography community goals, the fusion approach will be applied to different data bases to understand and quantify heat storage and carbon content of the North Atlantic in collaboration with scientists from Great Britain and Germany and to allow junior scientists to obtain excellent training and learning in cross disciplinary/multi-disciplinary areas of great scientific and practical importance. The PIs will address a long-standing but important problem involved with improving the estimation and prediction of the state of the ocean. The primary goals of this project are to develop an innovative approach for representation and manipulation of uncertainty coming from a wide variety of sources such as sensor outputs, model outputs, aggregating expert opinions as well as merging different databases and data even when distinct pieces of information are contradictory, and to suggest methods to fuse this information in decision making goals. The study will provide new mathematical theory and tools relevant for this problem, but also for more general applications in oceanography, meteorology and climatology. Mathematically the approach uses a fuzzy set formulation which originated in pure mathematics and which will be adapted for representing and manipulating data uncertainty and ocean model error. Results of the work will advance development of new forecast metrics in terms of fuzzy sets as well as new methods for quantification of model predictability through data-model and model-model comparisons at weather and climatic scales. As the first step in using these tools for broader oceanography community goals, the approach will be applied to different data bases which relate to quantifying heat storage and carbon content of the North Atlantic. The PIs will collaborate with scientists from Great Britain and Germany. Junior scientists involved in the project will obtain excellent training and learning in cross disciplinary/multi-disciplinary areas of great scientific and practical importance.