CDI-Type II: New Cyber Technologies to Enable Space Weather Forecasting

空间天气是指近地空间环境中可能对技术系统的性能和可靠性产生负面影响或可能危及人类生命或健康的条件。重大的空间天气影响可能既代价高昂，又危险。空间天气的影响包括卫星记忆错误、幻影命令、与地平线上部署的部队和飞机失去通信、GPS定位的重大错误以及电网故障。出于民用和国家安全的目的，发展可靠的空间天气预报能力是国家的高度优先事项。克服现场和遥感数据来源有限的问题，并设法弥补甚至在最先进的日地空间天气模型中遗漏的物理现象，是推动空间天气预报模型取得进展所必须解决的根本挑战。该项目使用计算思维进行变革性研究，以应对这两个挑战。它将开创空间天气建模的新方法，这些方法将是变革性的，并最终产生可靠的空间天气预报能力。该项目是高度跨学科的，将通过开发和利用理论计算机科学的前沿图像重建思想以及控制系统工程的新的自适应模型校正方法来追求空间天气模拟中的这些重要目标。该项目的成果将有助于为国家建立可靠的空间天气预报能力。目前的方法除了现在的铸造外，可靠性非常有限。该项目将有助于实现大约18小时的预报能力，这将是一个巨大的进步。通过与NASA/NSF社区协调建模中心的合作，该项目将能够验证由此产生的知识、系统和工具，并将其转移到实际的空间气象业务中。计算机代码、算法和工具也将免费提供给其他研究人员，允许更广泛的研究社区利用为自己的研究需求开发的工具。四名研究生将在该项目下就业和培训。此外，研究成果将被纳入密歇根大学的本科生和研究生课程。该项目还将通过制作关于太空探索和空间天气的展览来加强和扩大与当地儿童博物馆正在进行的合作。

Space Weather refers to conditions in the near-Earth space environment that can negatively impact the performance and reliability of technological systems or can endanger human life or health. Significant space weather impacts can be both costly and dangerous. The impacts of space weather include satellite memory errors, phantom commands, loss of communication with deployed troops and aircraft that are over the horizon, significant errors in GPS position determination, and failures of power grids. The development of a reliable space weather forecast capability is a high national priority for both civilian and national security purposes. Overcoming the limited availability of in situ and remote sensing data sources and finding ways to compensate for missing physics even in the most advanced Sun-to-Earth space weather models are fundamental challenges that must be solved to make advances to space weather forecasting models. This project employs computational thinking to carry out transformative research that addresses both of these challenges. It will pioneer new methods for space weather modeling that will be transformational and eventually lead to a reliable space weather forecast capability. The project is highly interdisciplinary and will pursue these important goals in space weather modeling by developing and utilizing frontier image reconstruction ideas from theoretical computer science together with novel adaptive model correction methodologies from control systems engineering. The results of this project will aid in establishing a reliable space weather forecasting capability for the nation. Present methods have very limited reliability beyond now-casting. This project would help achieve approximately 18-hour forecast capability, which would constitute a tremendous advance. Through collaboration with the NASA/NSF Community Coordinated Modeling Center the project will enable validation and transfer of the resulting knowledge, systems and tools to real space weather operations. Computer codes, algorithms, and tools will also be made freely available to other researchers, allowing the broader research community to utilize the tools that are developed for their own research needs. Four graduate students will be employed and trained under this project. In addition, the research results will be incorporated in undergraduate and graduate curricula at University of Michigan. The project will also strengthen and expand an ongoing collaboration with a local children's museum by creating exhibits about space exploration and space weather.