CAMEO: Comparative Approaches to Predicting the Consequences of an Impending Re-invasion: Top-predator Effects on Californian Near-shore Fisheries

该项目将通过对三种模拟加州中部和南部近岸生态系统的方法的性能进行参数化和分析，来比较这些地区的结构和动态。目标是开发分析工具，以促进基于生态系统的决策和管理，并预测海洋保护区和即将再次入侵南加州水域的海獭将如何影响该地区的渔业。调查人员将综合和利用来自空间广泛的长期监测工作的一系列预先存在的数据。除了关于海獭的活动范围、密度和食性的时间序列，来自已知年龄的海洋保护区和参考点网络的群落数据将提供所需的大规模观测实验，以理清海獭和海洋保护区对加州近岸生态系统及其渔业的结构和动态的影响。结果将被合并到三种不同的方法中：1)EcoPath与EcoSim，2)新陈代谢比例理论，3)循环分析。这些模型在数据要求、易用性和假设方面各有不同，它们在简化生物学复杂性的程度上也有很大差异。通过使用多种建模方法，人们可以比较关于海洋保护区的影响和即将到来的海獭重新入侵将如何影响这些重要群落的生产力、动态和弹性的预测。数据综合、分析和建模工作将提供基于生态系统的信息，以促进管理决策，这些决策将在处理政府保护和支持重建受联邦威胁的物种与保护和管理众多渔业之间迫在眉睫的冲突时需要。这些比较将促进我们对中部和南部CA海带森林生态系统过程的理解，包括自下而上和自上而下过程之间的相互作用，以及关键结构和功能属性的地理差异如何影响这些过程。在更实际的层面上，这项工作将产生1)一套分析工具以及有效和可转让的生态系统指标，以评估近岸温带珊瑚礁生态系统的状况、阈值和复原力；2)收集基于生态系统的短期和长期群落动态预测，包括对环境变化的复原力以及对商业和娱乐价值的海带森林渔业的复原力。这些产品将为海洋保护区监测和评估方案的设计提供信息，并将通过帮助渔业管理者预测和适应海獭再次入侵南部CA海藻森林的影响，对渔业管理者特别有用。该项目还将通过培训3名博士后和1名(拉美裔)研究生开发和应用生态系统模型和指标来实现教育目标。博士后将接受关于如何召开和举办研讨会以及向资源管理人员和政策制定者传达科学发现的培训。最后，这项工作将促进学术研究人员、NOAA渔业科学家和美国地质调查局生态学家之间的合作伙伴关系的发展。

This project will compare the structure and dynamics of central and southern Californian nearshore ecosystems by parameterizing and analyzing the performance of three approaches for modeling these areas. The goals are to develop analytical tools to facilitate ecosystem-based decision making and management, and to forecast how marine reserves and the impending re-invasion of sea otters to southern Californian waters will affect the region's fisheries. The investigators will synthesize and leverage an array of preexisting data from spatially-extensive, long-term monitoring efforts. Along with a time series on the range, density, and feeding habits of sea otters, community data from a network of MPAs and reference sites of known age will provide the large-scale observational experiments needed to disentangle the effects of sea otters and MPAs on the structure and dynamics of California's nearshore ecosystems and their fisheries. The results will be incorporated into three different approaches: 1) EcoPath with EcoSim, 2) Metabolic scaling theory, and 3) Loop Analysis. These models range in data requirements, ease of application, and assumptions, and they vary greatly in the extent to which they simplify biology's complexity. By employing multiple modeling approaches, one can compare predictions for how the effects of MPAs and the impending re-invasion of sea otters will affect the productivity, dynamics, and resilience of these important communities. The data synthesis, analyses, and modeling efforts will provide ecosystem-based information to facilitate management decisions that will be needed in dealing with the impending conflict between the government's protection and supported re-establishment of a federally threatened species, and the preservation and governance of numerous fisheries. The comparisons will advance our understanding of ecosystem processes in central and southern CA kelp forests, including the interaction between bottom-up and top-down processes, and how these are influenced by geographic variation in key structural and functional attributes. On a more practical level, this work will result in 1) a set of analytical tools and effective and transferable ecosystem-based indicators to assess the status, thresholds and resiliency of nearshore temperate reef ecosystems; and 2) a collection of ecosystem-based predictions of short- and long-term community dynamics, including resiliency to environmental change and to commercially and recreationally valued kelp forest fisheries. These products will inform the design of monitoring and evaluation programs for MPAs, and will be especially useful for fisheries managers by helping them predict and accommodate the impacts of the re-invasion of sea otters into southern CA kelp forests. The project will also fulfill educational objectives through the training of 3 postdocs and 1 (Hispanic) graduate student in the development and application of ecosystem models and indicators. Postdocs will receive training in how to convene and run workshops, and to communicate scientific findings to resource managers and policymakers. Finally, the work will lead to the development of a collaborative partnership between academic researchers, NOAA fisheries scientists and USGS ecologists.