RAPID RESEARCH: Particle Trajectories in Volcanic Plumes: Tracking the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull Plume

这个快速(快速反应)项目是来自布法罗大学(UB)、阿拉斯加大学费尔班克斯分校地球物理研究所(UAF-GI)和大学的科学家共同努力的成果，他们试图对冰岛艾雅法拉火山喷发造成的火山灰扩散进行建模，自2010年4月14日火山灰排放开始以来，这场火山喷发对欧洲航空业造成了严重破坏。顺风向平流的羽流被认为是对飞机的严重危险，可能会损坏喷气发动机，并磨损飞机的前缘。这项拟议的工作可能会对未来几个月的空中交通产生重要影响，因为过去的艾雅法拉火山喷发已经持续了一年多。建议使用集合预报来开发不同时间的概率火山灰云图。更具体地说，“泡芙”模拟代码将用于从2010年4月14日开始对艾雅法拉火山灰云的运动进行回放。喷发柱的高度和负载的可变性将通过柱模型Bent引入。将使用来自不同来源和不同分辨率的风场数据。将确定由于不确定的输入参数和初始条件以及随机强迫而导致的输出可变性。将通过与卫星数据的比较来验证输出。该项目的主要科学目标是：了解不确定的输入变量和随机强迫如何影响Eyjafjallajokull云的Puff模拟的输出，对照卫星数据验证输出，并探索改进火山灰云危害评估的可能性。预计这项工作将对火山灰云跟踪以及概率危险评估和总体预报产生影响。

This RAPID (Rapid Response) project is a collaborative effort by scientists from University at Buffalo (UB), the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska - Fairbanks (UAF-GI) and University to make an attempt to model the ash dispersal due to the volcanic eruption at Eyjafjallajokull, Iceland, that has wreaked havoc on European aviation since ash emissions began on 14 April 2010. The advecting downwind plume is thought to be a serious hazard to aircraft, with potential for damage to jet engines and abrasion of airplane leading edges. The proposed work could have important ramifications for air traffic over the next months, as past Eyjafjallajokull eruptions have continued for over one year.It is proposed to use ensemble forecasting to develop probabilistic ash cloud maps at different times. More specifically, the 'Puff' simulation code will be used to hindcast the motion of the Eyjafjallajokull ash cloud through time beginning on 14 April 2010. Variability in the height and loading of the eruption column will be introduced through the column model Bent. Windfield data from several sources and with differing resolutions will be used. Output variability due to uncertain input parameters and initial conditions, and random forcing, will be determined. The output will be validated through comparison with satellite data. The principal scientific goals of this project are: to understand how uncertain input variables and random forcing affect the output of Puff simulations of the Eyjafjallajokull cloud, to validate output against satellite data, and to explore the possibility of producing improved assessments of ash cloud hazards. It is expected that the work will have implications for ash cloud tracking as well as probabilistic hazards assessment and ensemble forecasting.