Type 2: A CRI-EaSM Collaborative proposal: Climate-to-humans: A study of urbanized coastal environments, their economics and vulnerability to climate change

将制定一个研究地球系统全球变化的统一框架，允许尺度上的相互作用(上/下尺度)和各分组成部分之间明确建模的动态反馈。研究小组将建立一个地球系统模型(EaSM)，将多尺度海洋、大气、流域、生物地球化学和人类系统模型结合在一起。以生物-经济和社会网络模型表示的环境和人类耦合系统的预测变异性将用于研究影响未来可持续做法和地球系统长期演变的管理和其他社会经济决定。这项研究的目标是美国东北部，这是一个高度城市化和人口稠密的地区，大约33%的美国人口居住着世界上最大的经济体之一。它也是一个易受全球变化影响的区域，经历了气候和生态系统的重大变化、土地利用的变化以及复杂的西部边界和海流，对北半球气候产生了重大影响。由于许多全球变化问题可以归因于人为扰动(例如，气候变暖、生态系统压力、生物多样性下降)，物理环境与人类系统的接口是该项目的核心。智力优势：该项目将使用过去20年的学科和计算发展来组装、测试和使用地球系统模型。提出的模型源于这样一种认识，即人类及其政治、经济和社会结构是地球系统的组成部分，与其气候和生态系统动态互动。因此，拟议模型的最终目标是能够研究现在和未来的气候和生态系统，同时考虑到自然和人为的强迫以及相关的人类决策结构。为此，该项目旨在提高当代气候模型的技能，方法是实施一项战略，允许在物理和生物地球化学方面进行多尺度相互作用，改进模型中的已知偏差，并在必要时改进物理和生态系统(例如陆地-海洋边界)的维度表示。更广泛的影响：该项目旨在开发可用于研究和解决人类面临的一些最大的长期挑战的工具，即不断变化的气候和有限的自然资源。它首先通过解决全球气候模型中的已知缺陷来实现这一点，其次通过开发一个包括经济和人类对气候系统的影响的模型来实现这一点。这项研究的目标区域是美国东北部和邻近的沿海地区。这是一个人口规模和经济活动都很大的地区，特别容易受到气候变化的影响。然而，拟议的地球系统模型的所有组成部分都可以在任何感兴趣的区域实施。由此产生的模型将既可供科学家用于研究目的，也可供政策制定者作为决策支持工具。模型开发的框架是基于社区的NCAR-社区气候系统模型。因此，所有发展都成为科学界储存库的一部分，具有重要的技术支持、教育和推广基础设施。拟议的一项重要的外联活动是为科学家和政策人员举办一次讲习班，主要目的是通过实际操作教程和在这项工作中开发的具体实例，向潜在的模型用户传授其能力。这项建议还将在工作的不同阶段支持学生和博士后研究员。最后，这项工作将通常不合作的科学社区聚集在一起。由于气候变化、人口增长和资源限制，社会面临的挑战是多方面的，需要采取跨学科的方法来研究、缓解和解决这些挑战。可以说，这项工作的最大影响是聚集了具有不同兴趣和学科的科学家，准备朝着共同的目标努力。

A unified framework for studying global change in the Earth System allowing for scale interactions (up/down-scaling) and explicitly modeled dynamic feedbacks between the sub-components will be developed. The investigator team will build an Earth System Model (EaSM) that couples multi-scale ocean, atmosphere, watershed, biogeochemistry and human system models. The projected variability of the coupled environmental and human systems, represented with bio-economic and social network models, will be used to study management and other socio-economic decisions affecting future sustainable practices and the long-term evolution of the Earth System. The target for this study is the northeast U.S., a highly urbanized and densely populated region with approximately 33% of the US population hosting one the world's largest economies. It is also a region where vulnerability to global change is heightened, experiencing significant climate and ecosystem changes, shifting land use, and a complex western boundary current oceanic regime with significant implications to the northern hemisphere climate. Since many of the global change issues can be attributed to anthropogenic perturbations (e.g., a warming climate, ecosystem stress, declining biodiversity) the interface of the physical environment with human systems is central to this project.Intellectual merit: This project will use disciplinary and computational developments of the last 20 years to assemble, test and use an Earth System Model. The proposed model emerges from the realization that humans and their political, economic and social structures are an integral part of the Earth System dynamically interacting with its climate and ecosystems. Therefore, the ultimate goal of the proposed model is to be able to study present and future climate and ecosystems, accounting for both physical and anthropogenic forcings and the relevant human decision-making structures. To that end, this project aims to increase the skill of contemporary climate models by implementing a strategy that permits multi-scale interactions in the physics and biogeochemistry, improving upon known biases in the models and where necessary improve the dimensional representation of the physics and the ecosystems (e.g., the land-sea boundary). Broader impacts: The project aims to develop tools that can be used to study and address some of the biggest long-term challenges facing humans namely, a changing climate and limited natural resources. It achieves this first, by addressing known deficiencies in global climate model and second, by developing a model that includes economics and the human impact on the climate system. The target region for the study is the northeast U.S. and adjacent coastal ocean. This is a region with a significant population size and economic activity, which are particularly vulnerable to climate change. However, all the components of the proposed Earth System Model can be implemented in any region of interest. The resulting model will be available both to scientists for research purposes and to policy makers as a decision support tool. The framework for the model development is the community-based NCAR-Community Climate System Model. As such all development becomes part of the scientific community repository with significant technical support, education and outreach infrastructure. A significant outreach activity proposed is to hold a workshop for scientists and policy people with the main goal of teaching potential users of the model its capabilities with hands on tutorials, and particular examples developed during this work. This proposal will also support students and post-doctoral fellows during various stages of the work.Finally, this work brings together scientific communities that do not typically work together. The challenges facing society due to a changing climate, population growth and resource limitations are multi-faceted and it will take an interdisciplinary approach to study, mitigate and solve them. Arguably, the biggest impact of this work is the assembly of scientists with varied interests and disciplines ready to work towards a common goal.