Type 1- L012170218: Collaborative Research: Ecosystem Impacts of Variability and Extreme Events in the Arctic

拟议的项目将为十年期和区域气候预测方案的几个主要目标提供高纬度区域重点：评价由最先进的全球系统模式模拟的区域变率和极端事件（共同体地球系统模式）;量化气候变化对北极海洋生态系统、陆地景观和海冰的影响;以及社区地球系统模型在季节性到十年期时间尺度上捕捉与生态系统有关的变化的能力。 系统模型的增强将侧重于海洋生态系统，将通过一个空间上明确的低营养食物网模型，包括营养物质、浮游植物和浮游动物，将海洋生态系统包括在内。 地面任务将包括更先进的火灾和相关物候过程公式，以纳入环境持续安全管理，从而能够评估地面变化对陆地表面过程驱动因素中潜在可预测变化的敏感性。 最后，海冰的变异性已被证明会影响海洋生态系统（通过改变浮游植物大量繁殖的环境及其与其他营养水平的相互作用）和周围陆地区域（通过温度和水分通量），这突出表明需要在地球系统模型方法中强调海冰，以预测北极季节至十年时间尺度的变异性。 拟议工作的更广泛影响包括有可能将一个海洋生态系统模块纳入最先进的系统模型，其中包括鱼类、海洋哺乳动物以及最终的捕捞压力，从而成为规划和决策的工具。 在陆地领域，火灾对高纬度地貌的改变可能不仅对当地的规划和适应，而且对通过地表特性和碳交换对更广泛的气候系统的反馈越来越重要。

The proposed project will provide a high-latitude regional focus for several of the primary objectives of the Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction program: an evaluation of regional variability and extreme events as simulated by a state-of-the-art global system model (the Community Earth System Model, CESM); quantification of the impacts of climate variability on the marine ecosystem, the terrestrial landscape and sea ice in the Arctic; and the ability of the Community Earth System Model to capture ecosystem-relevant variability over seasonal to decadal timescales. The system model enhancements will focus on marine ecosystem, which will be included through a spatially explicit lower trophic food web model encompassing nutrients, phytoplankton and zooplankton. The terrestrial tasks will include more advanced formulations of fire and related phenological processes for incorporation into CESM, enabling evaluations of the sensitivities of terrestrial changes to potentially predictable variations in the drivers of land surface processes. Finally, sea ice variability has been shown to influence both the marine ecosystem (by altering the environment of phytoplankton blooms and their interactions with other trophic levels) and the surrounding terrestrial regions (through temperature and moisture fluxes), highlighting the need for an emphasis on sea ice in an earth system model approach to predicting Arctic variability on seasonal to decadal timescales. The broader impacts of the proposed work include the potential for incorporating into a state-of-the-art system model a marine ecosystem module that includes fish, marine mammals and, eventually, fishing pressure, thereby serving as a tool for planning and decision-making. In the terrestrial realm, the modification of the high-latitude landscape by fire will likely be increasingly important not only for planning and adaptation locally, but for feedbacks to the broader climate system through surface properties and carbon exchange.