Extending the Capabilities for Fully Coupled Land-Ice Simulations within the Community Earth System Model

扩展社区地球系统模型内全耦合陆地-冰模拟的能力

• 批准号: 1443652
• 负责人: Marika Holland
• 金额: $ 11.63万
• 依托单位: University Corporation For Atmospheric Res
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-09-15 至 2016-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1443652&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Extending; Capabilities; Fully; Coupled; Land

Mass loss (primarily melting and iceberg discharge) from land ice is accelerating and will soon become the dominant contribution to long-term sea level rise. Accurate, physically-based projections of land-ice change are needed to assess the threats to coastal regions. While progress has been made, uncertainty still exists in sea level rise projections for the 21st century and beyond. This is in part because the models used for climate projections have traditionally incorporated very simple treatments of land ice. This award will allow for more accurate consideration of the role of land ice within predictive models, specifically through continued development of a sophisticated land ice component in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). One individual will work directly on the task, and will be available to train others. The Broader Impacts of this work include better predictions of sea level rise, which will provide coastal planners with better information to support the development of effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. Specific components of this project include adding conservative, two-way coupling between ice sheets, the land, and the atmosphere into the CESM. This will allow for improved long-term simulations to assess coupled ice-sheet/climate interactions. In addition, the project will support enhancements to the CESM's snow physics model, a component needed for accurate modeling of future ice-sheet mass changes. Finally, this project will provide support for improved model infrastructure that is needed to better simulate the future evolution of the Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets, as well as better hindcasting of paleo ice sheets that can be studied as analogs for the future. Together, these activities will result in refined research tools to address the important question of future sea level rise.

陆地冰的质量损失（主要是融化和冰山排放）正在加速，不久将成为海平面长期上升的主要原因。需要对陆地冰的变化进行准确的、基于物理的预测，以评估对沿海地区的威胁。虽然取得了进展，但对21世纪及以后海平面上升的预测仍然存在不确定性。这部分是因为用于气候预测的模型传统上包含了对陆地冰的非常简单的处理。该奖项将允许更准确地考虑陆地冰在预测模型中的作用，特别是通过继续开发社区地球系统模型（CESM）中复杂的陆地冰组件。一个人将直接从事这项任务，并可以培训其他人。这项工作的更广泛影响包括更好地预测海平面上升，这将为沿海规划者提供更好的信息，以支持制定有效的减缓和适应战略。该项目的具体组成部分包括在CESM中增加冰盖、陆地和大气之间的保守双向耦合。这将有助于改进长期模拟，以评估冰盖/气候相互作用。此外，该项目将支持增强CESM的雪物理模型，这是对未来冰盖质量变化进行准确建模所需的一个组成部分。最后，该项目将为改进模型基础设施提供支持，以更好地模拟北极和南极冰盖的未来演变，以及更好地对未来可以作为模拟物进行研究的古冰盖进行后报。这些活动将共同完善研究工具，以解决未来海平面上升的重要问题。