CAREER: Flood Risk Projections with Climatic Variation and Human-Induced Shifts in Hydrologic Response

美国很大一部分人口、基础设施和工业位于洪水易发地区；然而，用于减少洪水对经济、社会和环境影响的结构性和非结构性战略[例如，国家洪水保险计划(NFIP)]仍然基于对洪水风险的静态估计，尽管城市化和气候变化对洪峰的影响有据可查。因此，当前的挑战是创建一个统计框架，以预测未来的洪水风险，其中考虑到自然气候变异性、潜在的气候变化和即将发生的土地利用变化。鉴于这一需要，本研究的目标是：开发和测试扩展传统统计洪水风险模型的方法，以预测未来的洪水风险，并确定在美国东北部未来气候变化、土地利用和排放的情景下，气候变化和人为活动对洪水风险的相对影响。之所以选择这一研究区域，是因为它包括一系列洪水产生机制，并在其中确定了洪峰和海洋-大气模式之间的联系。这些研究目标将通过使用现有数据的基于观测的统计模型和模拟未来情景下洪水系列的基于物理的水文模型相结合来实现。这一项目给社会带来的好处将来自为洪水风险预测建立一个基于物理因果关系的统计框架。这一框架，结合气候变化和人类活动对未来情景下洪水风险的相对影响的知识，将为水资源管理方面的新进展奠定基础。该框架可用于制定一个随机的国家土地利用规划方案，并将有助于进行影响评估，例如分析与土地利用规划和管理情景有关的影响。此外，该项目将：提高K-12学生对人类活动对水文过程影响的认识，提高K-12学生对科学和工程职业的兴趣，并提高本科生攻读高等科学和工程学位的兴趣。这些成果将通过整合高中、本科生和研究生的研究和教育学生经验来实现。特别是，将在整个项目期间为九年级学生进行实地考察，将开发一个互动网络模块和相应的教案，供该项目完成后使用，研究生和本科生将参加外联活动，研究主题将纳入本科生水资源课程。将通过外展活动和对暑期本科生研究人员的积极指导，为招募和留住女性做出特别努力。

A large portion of the U.S. population, infrastructure, and industry is located in flood prone areas; however, structural and nonstructural strategies [e.g., the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)] used to reduce the economic, social, and environmental impacts of floods continue to be based on static estimates of flood risk despite the documented influence of urbanization and climatic variation on flood peaks. Thus, the current challenge is to create a statistical framework to project future flood risk that accounts for natural climate variability, potential climate change, and impending land use changes. In view of this need, the objectives of this research are: to develop and test methods that extend traditional statistical flood risk models to project future flood risk, and to determine the relative impacts of climatic variation and anthropogenic activities on flood risk under future scenarios of climate change, land use, and emissions in the Northeastern United States. This study region was chosen because it includes a range of flood generating mechanisms, and connections between flood peaks and oceanic-atmospheric patterns have been identified therein. These research objectives will be achieved through a combination of observation-based statistical models that use extant data and physically-based hydrologic models that simulate flood series under future scenarios. The benefits to society from this project will flow from the creation of a physical-causal based statistical framework for flood risk projection. This framework, combined with knowledge of the relative impacts of climatic variation and anthropogenic activities on flood risk under future scenarios, will provide the groundwork for new advances in water resources management. The framework could be used to develop a stochastic NFIP, and would facilitate impact assessments, such as analysis of the implications associated with land use planning and management scenarios. In addition, this project will: increase K-12 student awareness to the consequences of human activities on hydrologic processes, increase K-12 student interest in science and engineering careers, and increase undergraduate student interest to pursue advanced science and engineering degrees. These outcomes will be accomplished through the integration of research and educational student experiences at high school, undergraduate, and graduate levels. In particular, field trips for area ninth grade students will be held throughout the duration of the project, an interactive web module and corresponding lesson plan will be developed for use beyond completion of this project, graduate and undergraduate students will participate in outreach activities, and research themes will be integrated into undergraduate water resources coursework. Special efforts toward recruiting and retaining women will be made through outreach activities and positive mentoring of summer undergraduate researchers.