CAREER: Forecasting Climate Change Impacts on Plant Communities? When Do Species Interactions Matter?

气候变化对单个物种的影响取决于该物种如何直接应对降水和温度的变化，以及其捕食者或竞争对手如何受到气候变化的影响。虽然科学家们已经记录了这些物种相互作用的例子，这些相互作用压倒了气候变量变化的直接影响，但仍然无法预测这种情况有多普遍，或者何时何地发生。该研究结合了长期观测数据、数学模型和实地实验，以测试关于物种间相互作用如何、何时、何地介导气候变化和变异性的生态影响的一般预测，这项研究的结果可能对政府土地管理者有价值，他们面临越来越大的压力，需要在土地利用规划中考虑气候变化的影响。然而，管理人员缺乏获得相关科学信息的实际途径。因此，研究将辅之以一个教育方案，以改善研究人员和土地管理人员之间的沟通。在多所大学举行的一系列协调一致的研究生研讨会将使教师、学生和机构人员聚集在一起，综合西部山间现有的气候变化科学。研讨会将在研究人员和管理人员之间建立新的关系，由此产生的摘要报告将为决策提供信息。

The impact of climate change on an individual species depends both on how that species responds directly to alterations in precipitation and temperature, and on how its predators or competitors are affected by the change in climate. While scientists have documented examples of these species interactions overwhelming the direct effects of altered climate variables, it remains impossible to predict how common such situations may be or when and where they will occur. The proposed research combines long-term observational data, mathematical models, and field experiments to test general predictions about how, when and where species interactions will mediate the ecological impacts of climate change and variability.The results of this research may be of value to government land managers, who are under increasing pressure to consider climate change impacts in land-use planning. However, managers lack practical access to relevant scientific information. Therefore, the research will be complemented by an education program to improve communication between researchers and land managers. A series of coordinated graduate seminars at multiple universities will bring faculty, students and agency personnel together to synthesize existing climate change science in the Intermountain West. The seminars will build new relationships between researchers and managers and the resulting summary reports will inform decision-making.