LANDSCAPE VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE TO GLOBAL CHANGE

理解、预测和适应全球变化的研究需要对土地利用和气候等因素如何改变今天和未来的生态系统进行跨学科调查。我们寻求主办一个研讨会，让不同的研究人员社区参与，他们在预测和未来情景研究方面具有强大的背景，并表明致力于使这项工作成为LTER网络范围的活动。研讨会将重点放在这一活动的建模部分，目标是创建一个强大的预测工具，可以为社会解决重大科学问题和挑战，包括：(1)不断变化的自然和文化过程将如何影响一个地区？S的未来？(2)这些变化将如何影响一个地区？S自然基础设施，包括碳固存、水可获得性、生境和自然资源，以及(3)地区在脆弱性、复原力和对全球变化的适应能力方面如何以及为什么会不同？讲习班的成果将包括为该项目初步制定跨地点模型框架；应对建模工作的后勤障碍的战略；以及对项目成功所需的每个参与长期热核实验场所需人员和资源的关键评估。思考可能的情景是应对全球变化的生态和社会经济挑战的最有希望的办法之一。这项活动的全网络性质将使区域站点集群参与进来，并使它们能够集中资源和关于共享生态系统类型、利益攸关方群体、土地使用问题和其他因素的专业知识。该项目最初的和正在进行的工作将产生重大的社会效益，因为不同的利益攸关方社区(政策制定者和决策者、管理人员、社区和商业领袖、教育工作者以及不同学科的一大批科学家)直接参与该工具的创建，并直接侧重于解决社会和科学问题。

Research to understand, anticipate, and adapt to global change requires a cross-disciplinary investigation of how factors such as land use and climate are altering ecosystems today and in the future. We seek to host a workshop that engages a diverse community of researchers with strong backgrounds in forecasting and future scenarios research and a demonstrated commitment to making this work an LTER network-wide activity. The workshop would focus on the modeling component of this activity, with the goal of creating a robust forecasting tool that can address major scientific questions and challenges for society, including: (1) how will shifting natural and cultural processes affect a region?s future? (2) how will these changes influence a region?s natural infrastructure including carbon sequestration, water availability, habitat, and natural resources, and (3) how and why do regions differ in their vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability to global change? Products of the workshop will include the initial development of a cross-site model framework for the project; a strategy for confronting logistical barriers to the modeling effort; and a critical assessment of the staff and resources needed at each of the participating LTER sites for the project to succeed.Thinking of possible scenarios is among the most promising approaches to addressing the ecological and socioeconomic challenges of global change. The network-wide nature of this activity will engage regional clusters of sites and allow them to pool resources and expertise on shared ecosystem types, stakeholder groups, land use issues, and other factors. The initial and ongoing work of the project will have major societal benefits through direct engagement of diverse stakeholder communities in the creation of the tool (policy and decision makers, managers, community and business leaders, educators, and a wide array of scientists in different disciplines) and through its direct focus on addressing societal and scientific questions.