RAPID Proposal: Merging Monsoon, Snowmelt and Post-flood Ground Information for a Multivariate Estimation and Prediction of Flood Risk for the Indus River, Pakistan

印度河水系由积雪和冰川融化以及季风降雨提供水源，两者都有可能造成灾难性的洪水。目前洪水的强度显然超过了以前的概率估计：河岸保护和大坝溢洪道的设计通常是为了承受较小的泄洪。这个项目将结合对降雨、水流、温度和气象图的统计分析以及全球环流模型的预测，为印度河流域不同地点这类事件的典型平均复发时间提供可靠的估计。将收集和整理相关数据。尤其迫切需要收集有关洪泛区的信息，以核实洪水水位和水量，以及界定(或重新界定)洪水风险地区。从科学的角度来看，重要的是了解这些事件是否会随着气候变化而变得更有可能发生。印度河是世界上最大的灌溉网络之一，S说，它在一个季节面临严重的缺水，在另一个季节面临灾难性的洪水。2010年7月底至8月初，巴基斯坦历史上最严重的洪水造成1600多人死亡，2000多万人直接受到影响。对农业的破坏，包括对收成的破坏，以及目前流行的流行病，给该国造成了一场无法相称的社会经济危机。因此，改进流域范围内的风险估计和洪水预报对于实现水资源的更可持续和安全使用、发布洪水警报以及指导保护和水利工程的适当设计至关重要。更好地了解导致此类灾害的复杂河流流动动力学也将有助于世界其他地区(特别是在美国西南部、加利福尼亚州和西北部)，在这些地区，积雪融化和降水的时机是水资源管理和防洪的关键。从教育的角度来看，该项目的成果将在杜克大学一年级的工程、政策和环境课程中公布。最后，巴基斯坦和美国之间的合作从社会角度来看是有价值的，因为它促进了水文科学和工程的发展。该项目由地球科学部和国际科学与工程办公室共同资助。

The Indus River system is fed by melting of snow and glaciers and by monsoon rainfall, and both have the potential to produce catastrophic flooding. The intensity of the present flood clearly exceeded previous probabilistic estimates: river-bank protections and dam spillway were typically designed to withstand smaller discharges. This project will combine statistical analysis of rainfall, streamflow, temperature and meteorological maps with projections of Global Circulation Models to provide a reliable estimate of the typical average recurrence time of such types of events for the Indus River basin at different locations. Relevant data will be collected and organized. There is especial urgency with regard to gathering information on the flooded areas to verify the flood water levels and volumes, as well as to define (or redefine) flood risk areas. From a scientific point of view it is important to understand whether these events may become more likely with climate change. The Indus River, one of the world?s largest irrigation networks, faces both serious scarcity of water in one season and disastrous floods in another. In late July-early Aug 2010, the worst floods in Pakistan's history killed more than 1,600 people and directly affected more than 20 million more. The destruction to the farming-industry, including harvest, and the incumbent epidemics resulted in an incommensurable socio-economic crisis for the country. Thus improved risk estimates and flood prediction at the basin scale are fundamental to achieve more sustainable and secure use of water resources, and to issue flood warning as well as to guide proper design of protection and hydraulic works. Improved understanding of complex river flow dynamics leading to such disasters will also be instrumental for other areas of the world (in particular, in the US for the South West, California, and the Northwest), where timing of snowmelt and precipitation are key for water resources management and flood protection. From an educational viewpoint, the results of the project will be presented in first-year engineering, policy and environmental courses at Duke University. Finally, the collaboration between Pakistan and US is valuable from a social point of view because it fosters development of hydrological sciences and engineering. This project is co-funded by the Division of Earth Sciences and the Office of International Science and Engineering.