Protective Action Triggers

这项研究的目的是提高我们对导致应急管理者在面临环境威胁时向公众建议保护行动的因素和阈值的理解。在这方面需要解决三个关键问题：1)谁应该采取行动；2)什么是最好的行动；3)这种行动应该在什么时候发生？尽管这些问题看起来很简单，但风险可能非常高，而且它们经常在时间压力和不确定性下得到解决。该项目的重点是“触发点”(或多个触发点)，这是一种新的决策辅助工具，由应急管理人员使用，将事件(如时间、地点、条件)与建议的保护行动(如疏散、就地避难、避难庇护所)结合起来，以便在事件发生时建议采取行动。因此，触发因素为解决上述三个问题提供了一个有价值的框架，它们的分析代表着在改善我们对紧急情况警告的理解方面的潜在飞跃。本研究的目的是：1)扩展当前关于保护行为的理论，以包括触发因素；2)确定决定触发因素在空间和时间上如何设置的因素，这些因素的相对重要性，以及用于结合这些因素的决策规则(S)；3)开发和测试触发如何设置和检测的认知和物理模型。本研究基于三个步骤的实验设计：1)访谈和观察以获取关于触发物的类型、性质和有效性的知识；2)使用基于网络的野火场景模拟器进行实验以确定设置触发物的相关因素及其对决策者的重要性；3)通过专家设置的触发物和通过物理模型得出的触发物进行比较研究。本项目的结果将促进我们对保护行动决策中关键但研究不足的决策辅助的了解。该项目将加强灾害研究和管理界之间的联系，并将通过演讲、讲习班和行业期刊向从业人员传播成果，目的是改进保护行动培训，并最终改善公共安全。该项目还将加强犹他大学研究生和本科生的教育基础设施，同时加强自然和技术危害中心的跨学科合作。此外，将使用野火模拟器开发本科教育模块，用于紧急管理、自然决策和火灾人与环境的互动课程。最后，该项目的所有软件和数据将通过一个项目网站提供给灾害研究界。

The goal of this research is to improve our understanding of the factors and thresholds that lead emergency managers to recommend protective actions to the public in the face of an environmental threat. Three key questions need to be addressed in this context: 1) who should take action, 2) what is the best action, and 3) when should this action occur? As straightforward as these questions may seem, the stakes can be extremely high and they are frequently addressed under time pressure and uncertainty. The focus of this project is "trigger points" (or triggers), a novel decision aid used by emergency managers to combine an event (e.g. time, place, condition) with a recommended protective action (e.g. evacuate, shelter-in-place, refuge shelter) for a threatened sub-population, such that the action is recommended if the event occurs. Triggers therefore provide a valuable framework for addressing the three questions noted above, and their analysis represents a potential leap in improving our understanding of emergency warnings. The objectives of this research are to: 1) extend current theory on protective actions to include triggers; 2) identify the factors that determine how a trigger is set in space and time, the relative importance of the factors, and the decision rule(s) used to combine the factors; and 3) develop and test cognitive and physical models of how triggers are set and detected. The research is based on a three-step experimental design comprised of: 1) interviews and observation to elicit knowledge about the types, nature, and efficacy of triggers, 2) experiments with a web-based wildfire scenario simulator to ascertain relevant factors in setting triggers and their respective importance to decision makers, and 3) a comparative study between triggers set by experts and ones derived through physical modeling.The results of this project will advance our knowledge regarding a critical yet under-researched decision aid in protective-action decision making. The project will strengthen ties between the disaster research and management communities, and the results will be disseminated to practitioners through presentations, workshops and trade journals with the goal of improving protective-action training and ultimately public safety. This project will also enhance graduate and undergraduate educational infrastructure at the University of Utah while strengthening interdisciplinary collaboration at the Center for Natural and Technological Hazards. In addition, undergraduate educational modules will be developed using the wildfire simulator for classes in Emergency Management, Naturalistic Decision Making, and Fire Human-Environment Interactions. Finally, all software and data from this project will be made available to the disaster research community via a project website.