CNH: Global Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis in the Evaluation of Social-Ecological Resilience: Theoretical Debates Over Infrastructure Impacts on Livelihoods and Forest Change

新的道路基础设施导致受影响地区的许多变化，包括经济一体化、环境退化和自然资源冲突。该项目将采用系统方法，将复原力作为一个综合概念，将经济、生态和社会科学的观点结合在一起，以更好地了解基础设施的影响。为了评估系统对基础设施的复原力，该项目将使用全球敏感性和不确定性分析来量化系统状态的关键指标超过关键阈值(即临界点)的概率，该临界点表示由于系统状态的变化而丧失复原力。这项工作的研究系统是亚马逊西南部的前沿，这是一个高度生物多样性的地区，正在进行高速公路铺设。该项目将侧重于研究基础设施影响的学者一直在辩论的两个关键问题：土地保有权和生计的变化。这项研究将从这些问题的不同理论角度出发，模拟土地所有权、使用和生计的具体变化，进而影响系统状态的两个关键指标：森林覆盖率和森林价值。将开发动态模拟模型，以比较模型产出的森林复盖率和森林价值，因为它们取决于关于公路铺设如何影响保有权和生计的不同假设。模拟模型将与敏感性分析相结合，以评估模型在预测森林覆盖和森林价值变化方面的不确定性，并评估系统对公路铺设的弹性。该项目将加强佛罗里达大学与玻利维亚、巴西和秘鲁的合作机构之间的合作关系，并建设亚马逊地区三国社会生态研究的能力。研究生和博士后学者将接受培训，并获得合作、跨学科和国际团队研究的经验。研究区域有地方政府和其他利益攸关方需要更多地获得有关基础设施的科学发现。该项目将利用一种创新的知识交流模式传播研究成果，该模式旨在惠及数百个利益攸关方。这种外联和对话将支持公众更广泛地参与区域政府的环境规划。该项目中开发的建模方法还将有助于理解气候变化和全球市场变化等其他问题。

New road infrastructure leads to numerous changes in affected regions, including economic integration, environmental degradation, and conflicts over natural resources. This project will apply a systems approach that features resilience as an integrative concept to bring together economic, ecological and social science perspectives to better understand infrastructure impacts. To evaluate system resilience to infrastructure, this project will use global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to quantify the probability that a key indicator of system state will go past a critical threshold, i.e., a tipping point, indicating loss of resilience via a change in system state. The study system for this work is the frontier of the southwestern Amazon, a highly biodiverse region in which highway paving is underway. The project will focus on two key issues that have been debated by scholars who study infrastructure impacts: changes in land tenure and livelihoods. The research will draw from different theoretical perspectives on these issues to model specific changes in land ownership, use, and livelihoods, which in turn affect two key indicators of system state: forest cover and forest value. Dynamic simulation models will be developed to compare model output for forest cover and forest value as they depend on different assumptions about how highway paving affects tenure and livelihoods. Simulation models will be integrated with sensitivity analysis to assess model uncertainty in predicting changes in forest cover and forest value, and to assess system resilience to highway paving.This project will strengthen collaborative ties between University of Florida and partner institutions in Bolivia, Brazil, and Peru, and build tri-national capacity for social-ecological research in the Amazon. Graduate students and postdoctoral scholars will be trained and gain experience in collaborative, interdisciplinary and international team research. The study region has local governments and other stakeholders with needs for greater access to scientific findings regarding infrastructure. This project will disseminate research results using an innovative knowledge exchange model designed to reach hundreds of stakeholders. Such outreach and dialogue will support broader public participation in environmental planning by regional governments. The modeling approach developed in this project will also contribute to understanding for other problems such as climate change and global market shifts.