Collaborative Research: Multi-Level Response Diversity: Land Use, Livelihood Diversification and Resilience in northern Tanzania

Paul Leslie博士（北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校卡罗莱纳人口中心）和J. Terrence McCabe博士（科罗拉多大学）将研究家庭和社区对环境变化和政策约束的反应变化如何影响社会生态系统的整体弹性，以及文化机构在这些系统中的作用。将在坦桑尼亚收集数据，以开发探索这些问题的模型。在东非的大部分地区，传统上游牧和半游牧的牧民已经开始采用农业并从事劳动力迁移。这些变化的环境和社会后果可能是深远的，但人们对其了解甚少。该项目将澄清土地利用和生计模式变化的原因，并将探讨这些变化如何影响社会生态系统，包括家庭和社区的生存能力以及对土地覆盖和生物多样性的影响。一个特别的重点将是反应的多样性。反应多样性是由于并非所有行为体（个人、家庭、社区）对变化的条件作出相同的反应；在理解在变化的条件下决策的影响时，反应的变化可能比典型的或平均的反应更重要。该项目的创新之处在于将基于实地的实证研究与基于主体的建模（ABM）相结合。ABM是一种计算机模拟技术，非常适合研究家庭和社区相互作用并受变化条件影响作出决定的复杂系统。综合使用，这些方法将揭示土地利用、生计、家庭人口统计、人口增长和其他因素如何响应自然和政治经济环境的变化，特别是测试整个系统弹性的不可预测的波动和冲击。冲击可以是气候（如严重干旱）、生物（如牲畜疾病流行）和社会政治（如保护区建立后无法获得牧场和其他资源）。本研究的科学意义在于它有助于理解和理论化反应多样性对社会生态恢复力的非常复杂的影响。研究结果将对东非的保护和发展产生直接影响，也将有助于理解其他地方不断变化的社会生态系统。研究人员的发现还将提出减轻社会和生态变化对人类福祉的潜在负面影响的方法，同时还将促进有效的保护和发展措施。

Dr. Paul Leslie (Carolina Population Center, the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill) and Dr. J. Terrence McCabe (University of Colorado) will undertake research on how variation in household and community responses to environmental changes and policy constraints affect the overall resilience of socio-ecological systems, and the role of cultural institutions in those systems. Data to develop models to explore these issues will be collected in Tanzania. Throughout much of East Africa, traditionally nomadic and semi-nomadic herders have been adopting agriculture and engaging in labor migration. The environmental and social consequences of these changes are likely to be profound but remain poorly understood. This project will clarify the causes of the changing land use and livelihood patterns, and will explore how these changes affect the social-ecological system, including the viability of households and communities and the impacts on land cover and biodiversity. A particular focus will be response diversity. Response diversity results from the fact that not all actors (individuals, households, communities) respond the same way to changing conditions; the variation in response may be more important than the typical or average response in understanding the effects of decision making under changing conditions.The project is innovative in its integration of empirical field-based research with agent-based modeling (ABM), a computer simulation technique that is well-suited to studying complex systems in which households and communities interact with one another and make decisions influenced by changing conditions. Used together, these methods will reveal much about how land use, livelihoods, family demography, population growth and other factors respond to changes in the physical and political-economic environment, especially unpredictable fluctuations and shocks that test overall system resilience. Shocks can be climatic (e.g., severe droughts), biotic (e.g., livestock disease epidemics), and sociopolitical (e.g., loss of access to pasture and other resources when conservation areas are established). The scientific significance of this research lies in its contribution to understanding and theorizing the very complex effects of response diversity on socio-ecological resilience. The research results will have a direct bearing on conservation and development in East Africa and will also help to understand changing socio-ecological systems elsewhere. The researchers' findings also will suggest ways of mitigating the potentially negative impacts of social and ecological change on human well-being while also promoting effective conservation and development measures.