Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Water and Energy Bargaining in Post-Soviet Central Asia

本项目旨在解释在苏联解体后获得独立的五个中亚国家（哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦共和国、塔吉克斯坦、土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦）在水和能源政策问题上合作的差异。这些国家共享咸海盆地，该盆地由两条主要河流组成：阿姆河和锡尔河。下游各州，即那些远离这些河流源头的州，依靠水来灌溉农田。这种相互依赖是苏联留下的诸多遗产之一。在苏联政府的指导下，上游国家在夏季从水库放水用于下游灌溉，作为回报，在冬季从下游邻国获得能源供应。然而，独立后，水和能源政策协调问题变成了州际谈判问题，而不是中央计划问题。中亚国家在独立后如何应对政策协调的需要？他们的经验对发展中国家之间的合作有何启示？维持苏联时代合作水平的努力既没有完全成功，也没有完全失败。该项目探讨了自苏联解体以来多年来合作的几个关键方面的变化。它将特别着重于谈判的时间和长度、商定的双边协定的条件以及签署国在过去20年中在水和能源政策领域最终遵守这些协定的情况。它将研究国内政治对各国如何进行谈判和就后续遵守程度做出决定的影响。因此，该研究项目解决了有关非民主国家国内政治与国际政治之间关系的重要问题。尽管这种关系在民主国家得到了相当广泛的研究，但在其他类型的政府中仍未得到充分研究。这也提出了一个问题，我们应该如何衡量合作的水平——是州际谈判的发生，谈判的长度，最终协议的条款，还是随后对协议的遵守，真正定义了国际合作？通过查看每个方面，该项目比大多数关于该主题的其他文献都迈出了一步。此外，除了对国际和比较政治领域的贡献外，这项研究还将引起人们对世界上一个相对不为人知的地区所面临的最紧迫问题之一的关注。近年来，由于该地区靠近阿富汗及其对西方的战略价值，人们对该地区重要性的认识有所增加，这使得学术研究的缺乏更加引人注目。该研究项目完成后，将有助于填补这一空白，并通过确定增加和减少水和能源政策成功合作可能性的因素，为中亚的政策制定者提供实际指导。这些见解可以用于缓解制约该地区经济发展的水和电短缺问题。

This project seeks to explain variation in cooperation on issues of water and energy policy among the five Central Asian states that attained independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union: Kazakhstan, the Krygyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkemenistan, and Uzbekistan. These states share the Aral Sea basin, which consists of two major rivers: the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya. The downstream states, those located furthese from the source of these rivers, depend on water for the irrigation of agricultural lands. This interdependence is one of the many legacies left by the Soviet Union. Under the direction of the Soviet administration, the upstream states released water from their reservoirs for downstream irrigation in the summer, and, in return, received energy supplies from their downstream neighbors during the winter. However, after independence, the issue of water and energy policy coordination became a matter of interstate bargaining rather than central planning. How have the states of Central Asia coped with the need for policy coordination in the post-independence time period and what can their experience tell us about cooperation amoung developing states? The effort to maintain Soviet-era levels of cooperation has been neither a complete success nor a complete failure. This project explores the variation in several key aspects of cooperation over the years since the collapse of the Soviet Union. In particular, it will focus on the timing and length of negotiations, the agreed upon terms of bilateral agreements and the ultimate compliance of signatories with these agreements in the area of water and engergy policy during the past 20 years. It will examine the impact of domestic politics on how states conduct negotiations and make decisions regarding subsequent levels of compliance. The research project therefore addresses important questions about the relationship between domestic and international politics in non-democracies. Although this relationship has been examined fairly extensively in democracies, it remains understudied in other types of government. It also raises the question of how we should measure levels of cooperation - is it the occurrence of interstate bargaining, the length of negotiations, the terms of ultimate agreement, or subsequent compliance with that agreement that really defines international cooperation? By looking at each aspect, the project takes a step beyond most other literature on the topic. In addition, to its contribution to the fields of international and comparative politics, this research will also draw attention to one of the most pressing issues facing a relatively unknown region of the world. The perceived importance of this region has increased in recent years due to its proximity to Afghanistan and its consequent strategic value to the West, making the lack of scholarship even more striking. On its completion, the research project will help fill this void and also provide practical guidance to policy makers in Central Asia by identifying factors that increase and decrease the likelihood of successful cooperation in water and energy policy. These insights could be used in efforts to alleviate the water and power shortages that have constrained economic development in the area.