Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Vote-Buying and Political Preferences in Africa

政治家在竞选期间向选民分配少量物质资源，通常以金钱、食物、啤酒或衣服的形式，这在世界上许多民主国家长期以来都很常见。这些活动通常以贿选的名义进行。在没有立法或强制执行投票保密的地方，收买选票可能是有效的，因为政治家可以强制执行收买选票的交易。然而，在某些情况下，尽管进行了无记名投票，贿选行为仍然存在。在肯尼亚，一些地区超过40%的选民在2007年大选前收到了钱；然而，投票在形式上是保密的，政党缺乏监督选民的能力，而且大多数人认为有权有势的人无法知道他们是如何投票的。肯尼亚的贿选行为令人费解。更令人费解的是，非洲人尤其是肯尼亚人经常被说成是按种族来投票的。如果非洲选民按照种族来投票，就像传统观点认为的那样，为什么他们的选票也必须被收买呢？为了解非洲背景下的贿选行为，本项目将更全面地了解贿选行为如何影响选民和观察员的偏好和期望。事实上，尽管贿选在许多场合普遍存在，但几乎没有系统的证据证明其对支持和对政治家的看法的影响。这个项目提供了这样的证据，同时也解决了很多悬而未决的问题：贿选在为政客赢得支持方面是否有效？如果是这样，谁是有效的贿选，为什么？调查数据很难回答这些问题，至少有两个原因。首先，由于尴尬或害怕，许多受访者不愿诚实地回答有关贿选的调查问题，这使调查产生了偏差。其次，不同的贿选理论预测的结果在调查数据中观察上是相同的。为了避免这些问题，本研究在肯尼亚进行了实地实验。实验将向参与者展示人工但真实的录音，讨论假设的政治候选人，在随机选择的治疗组中，只包含对政治家贿选行为的微妙提及。后续问题将衡量对录音中所讨论的政治家的支持和看法，并将产生一个数据集，用于分析和衡量贿选对选民对政治家的支持和看法的影响，涉及多个关键维度。实验的人为性为检验相互竞争的理论提供了必要的控制。此外，使用录音可以让调查人员在提到贿选时更加微妙。这个项目的智力价值在于它能够促进对非洲选举的关键民主进程的运作的理解。该项目特别阐明了广泛而令人费解的贿选现象。通过帮助我们理解贿选是否有效以及为什么有效，该项目增强了我们对民主选举何时以及为何能产生或不能产生负责任的政府的认识。该项目更广泛的影响与其智力贡献有关。该项目可以为旨在促进政府对公民的响应和问责的政策和项目的设计提供参考。

The distribution of small material resources by politicians to voters during election campaigns, often in the form of money, food, beer, or clothing, has long been common in many democracies around the world. These activities typically go by the name of vote buying. Where ballot secrecy is not legislated or enforced, buying votes can be effective because politicians can enforce vote-buying bargains. In some settings, however, vote-buying persists despite the secret ballot. In Kenya, over 40 percent of voters in some areas received money before the 2007 election; yet the ballot is formally secret, parties lack the capacity to monitor voters, and large majorities believe that powerful people cannot figure out how they voted. Vote buying in Kenya is puzzling. It is even more puzzling because Africans and Kenyans in particular are often said to vote ethnically. If African voters vote ethnically, as the conventional wisdom suggests, why must their votes also be bought? To understand vote buying in the African context, this project develops a fuller understanding of how vote buying influences the preferences and expectations of recipients and observers. Indeed, despite the prevalence of vote-buying in many settings, there is little systematic evidence documenting its impact on support for and perceptions of politicians. This project provides such evidence while addressing largely unanswered questions: Is vote buying effective in building support for politicians? If so, with whom is vote buying effective, and why? Answering these questions is difficult with survey data for at least two reasons. First, because of embarrassment or fear, many survey respondents are unwilling to respond honestly to survey questions about vote buying, which biases the surveys. Second, different theories of vote buying predict outcomes that are observationally equivalent in survey data. To avoid these problems, this study conducts field experiments in Kenya. The experiments will present participants with artificial, but realistic, audio recordings discussing hypothetical political candidates, varying only the inclusion of subtle references to the politician's vote-buying behavior in the recordings heard by randomly selected treatment groups. Follow-up questions will gauge support for and perceptions of the politicians discussed in the recording, and will yield a dataset with which to analyze and measure vote buying's impact on voter support for and perceptions of politicians across a number of key dimensions. The artificiality of the experiment provides the control necessary to test competing theories. Moreover, the use of recordings allows the investigator to gain subtlety in referring to vote buying. The intellectual merit of this project lies in its capacity to advance understanding of the workings of the critical democratic process of elections in Africa. The project illuminates in particular the widespread and puzzling phenomenon of vote buying. By contributing to our understanding of whether and why vote buying is effective, the project enhances knowledge of when and why democratic elections do--and do not--yield responsive and accountable government.The broader implications of the project are tied to its intellectual contributions. The project can inform the design of policies and programs seeking to promote the responsiveness and accountability of governments to their citizens.