Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Ethnicity and Retrospection: Explaining Voting Behavior in Uganda

根据传统观点，非洲选民在选举时按种族划分，每个群体投票给自己的群体。然而，在乌干达，穆塞韦尼总统所属的班扬科尔族只占人口的9%，而穆塞韦尼得到了大多数民众的支持。显然，大量乌干达人一定是把票投给了本民族以外的候选人。然而，班扬科尔人似乎确实在种族上投票，支持穆塞韦尼的人数远高于整体人口。如何解释这种投票模式？班扬科尔选民和非班扬科尔选民支持穆塞韦尼的原因相同吗？该项目假设，缺乏种族线索的非班扬科尔选民根据他们对穆塞韦尼过去执政表现的评估进行投票。为了解释Banyankole的投票行为，该项目检查了文献中的五个假设。在两种假设中，班扬科尔人和非班扬科尔人一样，完全根据对穆塞韦尼表现的评估来投票。穆塞韦尼在班扬科尔人中的优势在于，他的同胞对他的表现评价更高，要么是因为他为他们提供了更多的商品，要么是因为他们相信他这样做了。在第二组假设中，非班扬科尔人仍然根据表现投票，而班扬科尔人特别支持穆塞韦尼，因为他是他们的民族。班扬科尔人投票给穆塞韦尼可能是出于民族自豪感，因为他们相信一个共同的民族代表着他们获得未来财富的最佳机会，或者是因为他们面临着与自己的民族集团投票的社会压力。这项研究的核心是一个投票模拟实验，750名受访者被要求在种族、业绩记录和其他特征随机分配的候选人中做出选择。这个测试允许研究人员确定选民，无论是否Banyankole，是否依赖表现或种族（或其他东西）作为他们投票的基础。投票模拟也被用来测试社会投票假设：如果社会压力决定了投票，选民应该更有可能选择共同种族的候选人，当被要求在一群共同种族中大声投票时，而不是在进行无记名投票时。在研究的第二部分，受访者评估他们对假设的同种族或非同种族候选人的信心，如果当选，将为他们提供就业等好处。这个实验决定了在所有条件相同的情况下，选民是否对同种族的候选人有更多的未来期望。最后，研究人员创建了乌干达35个村庄的家庭财富和公共服务质量清单。这些数据使研究人员能够确定，在穆塞韦尼的领导下，班扬科尔人是否比其他人获得了更多的收益，以及/或者他们是否高估了自己获得的收益。将这些数据与对穆塞韦尼的评估、预测和选票进行比较，表明在预测乌干达政治特定背景下的选票份额时，候选人表现相对于种族的重要性。这项研究的实验性质通过隔离和控制选民所面临的候选人特征和选举条件，改进了对非洲投票的现有研究。此外，该项目将生成一个独特的新数据集，其中包含公共产品的客观和主观指标，从而允许将这些指标的实际变化与实际的个人投票行为联系起来。调查结果将提供有关穆塞韦尼如何分配物资和选民如何作出决定的客观信息，将与开展物资供应工作的多个乌干达研究机构共享，并通过公共媒体和直接邮寄的方式传播给进行调查的地区领导人。

According to the conventional wisdom, African voters split along ethnic lines at election time, with each group voting for its own. In Uganda, however, President Museveni's ethnic group, the Banyankole, comprise only nine percent of the population while Museveni is supported by a majority of the public. Clearly, large numbers of Ugandans must be voting for candidates outside of their ethnic group. Nevertheless, the Banyankole do seem to vote ethnically, supporting Museveni in numbers much higher than does the population as a whole. What explains this pattern of voting? Do Banyankole and non-Banyankole voters support Museveni for the same reasons? The project hypothesizes that non-Banyankole voters, lacking ethnic cues, vote based on their assessments of Museveni's past performance in office. To explain the voting behavior of the Banyankole, the project examines five hypotheses from the literature. In two hypotheses, the Banyankole, like the non-Banyankole, vote purely based on assessments of Museveni's performance. Museveni's advantage among the Banyankole comes from the fact that his co-ethnics assess his performance more favorably, either because he has provided them with more goods or because they believe he has. In the second set of hypotheses, non-Banyankole still vote based on performance, while the Banyankole support Museveni specifically because he is of their ethnic group. Banyankole may vote for Museveni out of ethnic pride, because they believe a co-ethnic represents their best chance of future goods, or because they face social pressure to vote with their ethnic bloc. The core of the study is a voting simulation experiment in which 750 respondents were asked to choose between candidates whose ethnicity, performance record and other characteristics have been randomly assigned. This test allows the researcher to determine if voters, whether Banyankole or not, rely on performance or ethnicity (or something else) as the basis of their vote. The voting simulation is also be used to test the social voting hypothesis: if social pressure determines voting, voters should be more likely to select co-ethnic candidates when asked to vote aloud among a group of co-ethnics than when marking a secret ballot. In the second part of the study, respondents rate their confidence that a hypothetical co-ethnic or non-co-ethnic candidate, if elected, would provide them with goods such as employment. This experiment determines whether, all things equal, voters expect more future goods from a co-ethnic candidate. Finally, the researcher creates inventories of household wealth and public service quality in 35 villages throughout Uganda. These data enable the researcher to determine whether the Banyankole have gained significantly more than other under Museveni's leadership and/or whether they overestimate what they receive. The data, compared to assessments of, predictions about, and votes for Museveni, indicate the importance of candidate performance, relative to ethnicity, in predicting vote share in the specific context of Ugandan politics. The experimental nature of the study improves upon existing research on African voting by isolating and controlling the candidate characteristics and electoral conditions to which voters are exposed. In addition, the project will produce a unique new dataset that contains both objective and subjective indicators of public goods, in a way that allows real changes in these indicators to be linked to actual individual voting behavior. The findings, which will provide objective information about how Museveni distributes goods and how voters make their decisions, will be shared with multiple Ugandan research organizations conducting work on goods provision, and disseminated both through the public media and in direct mailings to leaders of areas in which the survey was conducted.