Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Ethnicity and Retrospection: Explaining Voting Behavior in Uganda

根据传统观点，非洲选民在选举时会沿着种族界线分裂，每个群体都投自己的票。但在乌干达，穆塞韦尼总统的班扬科莱族只占人口的百分之九，而穆塞韦尼得到大多数公众的支持。显然，大量乌干达人必须投票给本族裔以外的候选人。尽管如此，Banyankole似乎确实按种族投票，支持穆塞韦尼的人数远远高于整个人口。如何解释这种投票模式？Banyankole和非Banyankole选民支持穆塞韦尼的原因是否相同？该项目假设，非Banyankole选民，缺乏种族线索，投票的基础上，他们的评估穆塞韦尼过去的表现在办公室。为了解释Banyankole的投票行为，该项目从文献中研究了五个假设。在两个假设中，Banyankole和非Banyankole一样，纯粹根据对穆塞韦尼表现的评估投票。穆塞韦尼在Banyankole中的优势来自于他的同胞对他的表现评价更高，要么是因为他为他们提供了更多的商品，要么是因为他们相信他有。在第二组假设中，非Banyankole仍然根据表现投票，而Banyankole支持穆塞韦尼，特别是因为他是他们的种族群体。Banyankole可能出于种族自豪感而投票给穆塞韦尼，因为他们相信一个同种族代表了他们未来最好的机会，或者因为他们面临着与他们的种族集团投票的社会压力。这项研究的核心是一个投票模拟实验，其中750名受访者被要求在种族、表现记录和其他特征被随机分配的候选人之间做出选择。这项测试允许研究人员确定选民，无论是否Banyankole，是否依赖于表现或种族（或其他因素）作为他们投票的基础。投票模拟也被用来测试社会投票假设：如果社会压力决定投票，选民应该更有可能选择同种族的候选人时，要求一组同种族大声投票时，比标记一个秘密投票。在研究的第二部分，受访者评估了他们对假设的同族裔或非同族裔候选人当选后将为他们提供就业等商品的信心。这个实验决定了，在所有条件相同的情况下，选民是否期望从一个同种族的候选人那里得到更多的未来利益。最后，研究人员创建了乌干达35个村庄的家庭财富和公共服务质量的清单。这些数据使研究人员能够确定在穆塞韦尼的领导下，Banyankole是否比其他人获得了更多的利益，以及/或者他们是否高估了他们所获得的利益。这些数据相比，评估，预测，并为穆塞韦尼投票，表明候选人的表现，相对于种族，在预测乌干达政治的特定背景下的投票份额的重要性。这项研究的实验性质改进了现有的研究，通过隔离和控制候选人的特点和选举条件，选民所接触的非洲投票。此外，该项目将产生一个独特的新数据集，其中包含公共产品的客观和主观指标，使这些指标的真实的变化与实际的个人投票行为联系起来。调查结果将提供有关穆塞韦尼如何分配货物以及选民如何作出决定的客观信息，将与多个乌干达研究组织分享，这些研究组织正在进行货物供应工作，并通过公共媒体和直接邮寄给进行调查的地区领导人进行传播。

According to the conventional wisdom, African voters split along ethnic lines at election time, with each group voting for its own. In Uganda, however, President Museveni's ethnic group, the Banyankole, comprise only nine percent of the population while Museveni is supported by a majority of the public. Clearly, large numbers of Ugandans must be voting for candidates outside of their ethnic group. Nevertheless, the Banyankole do seem to vote ethnically, supporting Museveni in numbers much higher than does the population as a whole. What explains this pattern of voting? Do Banyankole and non-Banyankole voters support Museveni for the same reasons? The project hypothesizes that non-Banyankole voters, lacking ethnic cues, vote based on their assessments of Museveni's past performance in office. To explain the voting behavior of the Banyankole, the project examines five hypotheses from the literature. In two hypotheses, the Banyankole, like the non-Banyankole, vote purely based on assessments of Museveni's performance. Museveni's advantage among the Banyankole comes from the fact that his co-ethnics assess his performance more favorably, either because he has provided them with more goods or because they believe he has. In the second set of hypotheses, non-Banyankole still vote based on performance, while the Banyankole support Museveni specifically because he is of their ethnic group. Banyankole may vote for Museveni out of ethnic pride, because they believe a co-ethnic represents their best chance of future goods, or because they face social pressure to vote with their ethnic bloc. The core of the study is a voting simulation experiment in which 750 respondents were asked to choose between candidates whose ethnicity, performance record and other characteristics have been randomly assigned. This test allows the researcher to determine if voters, whether Banyankole or not, rely on performance or ethnicity (or something else) as the basis of their vote. The voting simulation is also be used to test the social voting hypothesis: if social pressure determines voting, voters should be more likely to select co-ethnic candidates when asked to vote aloud among a group of co-ethnics than when marking a secret ballot. In the second part of the study, respondents rate their confidence that a hypothetical co-ethnic or non-co-ethnic candidate, if elected, would provide them with goods such as employment. This experiment determines whether, all things equal, voters expect more future goods from a co-ethnic candidate. Finally, the researcher creates inventories of household wealth and public service quality in 35 villages throughout Uganda. These data enable the researcher to determine whether the Banyankole have gained significantly more than other under Museveni's leadership and/or whether they overestimate what they receive. The data, compared to assessments of, predictions about, and votes for Museveni, indicate the importance of candidate performance, relative to ethnicity, in predicting vote share in the specific context of Ugandan politics. The experimental nature of the study improves upon existing research on African voting by isolating and controlling the candidate characteristics and electoral conditions to which voters are exposed. In addition, the project will produce a unique new dataset that contains both objective and subjective indicators of public goods, in a way that allows real changes in these indicators to be linked to actual individual voting behavior. The findings, which will provide objective information about how Museveni distributes goods and how voters make their decisions, will be shared with multiple Ugandan research organizations conducting work on goods provision, and disseminated both through the public media and in direct mailings to leaders of areas in which the survey was conducted.