Firm Size and the Business Cycle

该奖项资助对雇主规模和就业增长之间关系的商业周期动态的研究。 不同规模和生产率的企业的商业周期动态对于宏观经济学中的基本问题是重要的。 例如，真实的工资如何对总体冲击作出反应，无论是招聘摩擦还是信贷摩擦对企业增长的影响更大，小企业是否真的是“创造就业的引擎”，这些问题都取决于商业周期的动态效应。PI和他的团队已经证明，大企业的就业比小企业的就业更具周期性（在美国和其他发达国家）。 他们开发了一个模型来解释这种依赖于离职摩擦的观察结果。 在此获得的资金将用于扩展该模型，以包括公司规模的其他一些重要决定因素。 然后，该小组将使用人口普查局提供的限制使用的商业纵向微观数据来测试该模型。 此外，通过实证分析，还将对原来的实证结果进行进一步的稳健性检验，验证高薪企业（不仅是大型企业）的雇佣是否具有更强的周期性，并将经济周期指标作为提高新企业进入预测的手段。本项目将劳动经济学的观点应用于宏观经济学的重要课题。 更广泛的影响是巨大的，特别是因为关于小企业的公共政策往往从这些企业是创造就业机会的引擎的假设开始。 最后，一些研究生将接受培训，学习在安全数据设施处理敏感微数据所需的方法。

This award funds research on the business cycle dynamics of the relationship between employer size and job growth. The business cycle dynamics of firms of different sizes and productivities are important for fundamental issues in macroeconomics. For example, how real wages respond to aggregate shocks, whether hiring frictions or credit frictions have a larger impact on firm growth, and whether or not small businesses are indeed 'the engine of job creation' are all issues that depend on these dynamic effects of the business cycle.The PI and his team have already documented that employment in larger firms is more cyclical than employment in small firms (both in the U.S. and in other developed countries). They have developed a model that explains this observation that depends on turnover frictions. The funds awarded here will be used to expand this model to include a number of additional important determinants of firm size. The team will then test the model using restricted use business longitudinal microdata available through the Census Bureau. The empirical analysis will also provide additional robustness checks of the original empirical finding, will verify whether high paying firms (and not just larger firms) have more cyclical employment, and will also use business cycle indicators as a way to improve estimates of the entry of new firms.This project brings insights from labor economics to bear on important questions in macroeconomics. The broader impacts are substantial, especially because public policy on small business often starts with the assumption that these businesses are the engine of job creation. Finally, a number of graduate students will be trained in the methods necessary to work with sensitive microdata at a secure data facility.