The causes and consequences of opinion formation in direct democracy elections

选举为选民提供了许多选择。虽然候选人选举中的选民选择受到了学术界的极大关注，但其他选择，如直接民主选举中的选择，却没有。该项目通过开展调查来探索投票建议的投票选择，从而帮助解决这种不平衡问题。通过这样做，这个项目促进了社会对选民决策性质的理解，对更好地理解直接民主的优点和局限性做出了宝贵的贡献。该项目的智力价值在于它审查了关于投票主张形成意见的原因和后果的两组相互关联的谜题。在第一组谜题中，该项目考察了选民如何形成对选票主张的看法。现有文献强调利益集团或政党等政治行为者的背书。但之前的研究提出了比答案更多的问题，因为背书意味着选民足够不知情，不知道如何就一个问题投票，但又足够了解某些类型的暗示。同样，背书驱动的方法可能会解释为什么意见会形成，但不能解释意见一旦形成，是保持稳定还是发生变化。特别是最后这一点到目前为止还没有被探讨过。在第二组谜题中，该提案考察了直接民主是否以及如何在选举中设定议程，并影响候选人的投票选择和联邦和州选举的投票率。尽管到目前为止，这些问题已经在文献中得到了考虑，但在什么情况下看到这些影响，以及谁最终成为选票主张的结果，还没有确定的答案。这两组谜题的答案是，影响不仅对个人，而且对问题的种类本身，以及重要的是，国家政治背景的差异也有所不同。为了理解这两组谜题，有必要了解这些现象的条件性质。该项目计划在2012年总统选举之前和之后与ANES一起进行网络调查。这项研究补充了一些工具，用更合适的数据来解决问题，进一步，将允许更好地检查州政治环境的影响。通过与ANES的协调，该项目可以将领先的选举行为调查的丰富知识应用到对直接民主问题的投票的理解上。作为回报，直接的民主内容可能会为候选人投票选择和投票率的模型提供信息，这是ANES的核心目标。这个项目的更广泛影响在于三个方面。首先，它将确定选民能够并确实通过线索获得意见的程度，以及这些意见在多大程度上保持稳定。其次，它将确定国家层面候选人的选择在多大程度上受到当地政治背景的影响。第三，该项目提供了几个经验性贡献。ANES的一个假设是，与投票选择相关的问题是全国性的，但往往有一些重要的州问题决定这些决定，特别是投票措施。如果这是真的，那么ANES对国家层面政治的关注只是故事的一部分。如果倡议即使在联邦选举中也可以影响投票选择--无论是通过塑造选民用来评估候选人的标准，还是通过影响投票率--那么这可能有助于塑造未来的ANES工具。最后，拟议的研究将显著提高可用于研究有关直接民主选举问题的数据的质量。

Elections offer voters many choices. While voter choice in candidate elections has received a great deal of scholarly attention other choices, such as those found in direct democracy elections, have not. This project helps address this imbalance by conducting surveys exploring vote choice on ballot propositions. In so doing, this project advances societal understanding of the nature of voter decision-making, a valuable contribution to better understanding the strengths and limitations of direct democracy.The intellectual merit of the project lies in its examination of two connected sets of puzzles concerning the causes and consequences of opinion formation on ballot propositions. In the first set of puzzles the project examines how voters form opinions on ballot propositions. Existing literature emphasizes endorsements made by political actors such as interest groups or political parties. But previous research raises more questions than it answers since endorsements imply that voters are uninformed enough not to know how to vote on a problem, yet informed enough to understand certain kinds of cues. Similarly, an endorsement-driven approach may explain why opinions form but cannot explain whether opinions - once formed - remain stable or change. This last point in particular has not been explored to date. It also connects the second set of puzzles relating to the consequences of direct democracy.In the second set of puzzles, the proposal examines whether, and how, direct democracy sets the agenda in elections and affects candidate vote choice and turnout in federal and state elections. Although these issues have been considered in the literature to date, the conditions under which these effects are seen, and who turns out as a consequence of ballot propositions, do not have established answers. The answer to both sets of puzzles is that effects vary not just over individuals but also over the kinds of issues themselves and, importantly, over differences in state political context. In order to understand both sets of puzzles, it is necessary to understand the conditional nature of these phenomena.The project plans to conduct web surveys before and after the 2012 presidential election in conjunction with the ANES. The study is augmented with instrumentation that addresses questions with more appropriate data and, further, will allow a better examination of the effects of state political environments. In coordinating with ANES, the project can apply the intellectual richness of the leading survey of electoral behavior to an understanding of voting on direct democracy issues. In return, direct democracy content may inform models of candidate vote choice and turnout, the central aims of the ANES.The broader impact of this project lies in three areas. First, it will establish the degree to which voters can and do have opinions informed by cues and, further, the extent to which those opinions remain stable. Second, it will establish the degree to which choices on national level candidates are shaped by local political context. Third, the project offers several empirical contributions. One assumption of the ANES is that issues relevant to vote choice are national in scope but there are often important state issues that shape these decisions, especially ballot measures. If that is true, then ANES' focus on national level politics is only part of the story. If it is the case that initiatives can inform vote choice even in federal elections - either by shaping the criteria voters use to evaluate candidates or affecting turnout - then this may help shape future ANES instrumentation. Lastly, the proposed study will markedly improve the quality of data available to study questions about direct democracy elections.