AGS-PRF: The Large Scale Impact of Wind Shear on Convection

知识价值：在局地尺度上，众所周知，风切变通过调节对流模式和强度来影响对流。 然而，在气候模拟所需的尺度上，风切变如何影响对流尚不清楚。 因此，全球气候模式（GCM）的对流参数化不考虑风切变。 这种简化导致了未知大小的误差，并增加了GCM对地球水文和辐射收支估计的不确定性，损害了未来的气候预测。 为了帮助回答这个问题，本研究将测试以下假设：在一个等效的热力学环境中，对流将加强在风切变的分辨率的GCM的存在。这个假设将通过使用大量的对流解决模式运行进行调查。 这些天气研究和预报（WRF）模拟将由三个机构的合作者提供：国家大气研究中心，国家严重风暴实验室和国家环境预测中心。 对流统计数据将来自这些模拟的分辨率的GCM了解如何对流属性随风切变在类似的热力学environment.broader影响的变化：这项研究将有助于填补知识之间存在的差距，严重对流和气候模拟社区，并将提高地球气候系统的理解和知识的GCM内目前的不确定性。 研究结果将有助于未来的参数化发展的GCM确定风切变及其对对流的影响是否需要纳入未来的对流参数化或可以安全地忽略。 如果这项工作支持所提出的假设，从这项研究中得出的统计数据将作为参数化开发人员的起点。 无论这一假设是否得到支持，决策者和社会都将受益于对地球气候系统的进一步了解，这项工作的结果将传播给气候和强风暴社区。 这将通过在公共网页上提供结果，在相关专业会议上介绍结果，并在评审期刊上发表结果来实现。将有更多的机会向合作机构介绍成果，这些机构为这项工作提供了模型模拟。

Intellectual merit:At the local scale, it is well known that wind shear influences convection by modulating convective mode and strength. However, how wind shear affects convection at the scales required for climate simulations is unknown. As a result, Global Climate Model (GCM) convective parameterizations do not consider wind shear. This simplification results in errors of unknown size and increased uncertainties for the GCM's estimate of the Earth's hydrologic and radiation budgets, harming future predictions of climate. To help answer this problem, this research will test the following hypothesis: In an equivalent thermodynamic environment, convection will be enhanced in the presence of wind shear at the resolution of a GCM.This hypothesis will be investigated by using a large number of convection resolving model runs. These Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations will be provided by collaborators at three institutions: National Center for Atmospheric Research, National Severe Storms Laboratory, and National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Convective statistics will be derived from these simulations at the resolution of GCMs to understand how convective properties vary with wind shear in similar thermodynamic environments.Broader impacts:This research will help fill the knowledge gaps that exist between the severe convection and climate modeling communities, and will improve the understanding of the Earth climate system and knowledge of current uncertainties within GCMs. The research results will aid future parameterization development for GCMs by determining whether wind shear and its effects on convection need to be included into future convective parameterizations or may be safely neglected. If this work supports the proposed hypothesis, the statistics derived from this study will serve as a starting place for parameterization developers. Regardless of whether the hypothesis is supported or rejected, policymakers and society will benefit from the increased understanding of the Earth's climate system.Results from this work will be disseminated to both the climate and severe storm communities. This will be accomplished by making results available on a public webpage, presenting results at relevant professional conferences, and publishing the results in refereed journals. There will be additional opportunities to present results at the collaborating institutions, which have provided model simulations for this work.