AGS-PRF: A 1500 Year Paleoprecipitation Reconstruction From Lake Sediments for Improved Earth System Modeling of Aridity Patterns in Western North America

在AGS-PRF（博士后研究奖学金）邀请的支持下，该研究人员的目标是在北美西部的一个东西样带湖泊上，对过去1500年的古降水进行多次定量重建。具体而言，研究人员将使用水文和同位素质量平衡模型定量解释现有（华盛顿和不列颠哥伦比亚省）和新（蒙大拿州）湖泊沉积物同位素记录，以开发中世纪气候异常和小冰河期的区域降水重建。这些重建将用于研究关于对比干旱模式的假设，并协助正在进行的实验，该实验使用一个耦合的海洋-大气模型的扰动物理集合运行，该模型控制厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）、大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）的潜在变化，以及它们对热带外降水和干旱模式的相关影响。更广泛的影响包括支持一位早期职业科学家，帮助减少厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）和大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）现象未来概率预测的不确定性，以及帮助限制对北美西部干旱地区未来水文气候条件的预测。

Under the aegis of the AGS-PRF (post-doctoral research fellowship) solicitation, the researcher aims to produce multiple, quantitative paleo-precipitation reconstructions, spanning the last 1,500 years, across an east-west transect of lakes in western North America. Specifically, the researcher will use hydrologic and isotope mass balance models to quantitatively interpret existing (Washington and British Columbia) and new (Montana) lake sediment isotope records to develop regional precipitation reconstructions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. These reconstructions will be used to investigate hypotheses regarding contrasting aridity patterns and to assist in ongoing experiments using perturbed physics ensemble runs of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model that govern potential changes in El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and their associated impacts on extra-tropical precipitation and drought patterns.The broader impacts involve supporting an early career scientist and helping reduce the uncertainty in probabilistic future projections of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) phenomenon and helping to constrain predictions of future hydroclimatic conditions in the arid regions of western North America.