Collaborative Research: Quantum Decision Theory

自从Tversky和Kahneman的有影响力的研究揭示了经典概率论在不确定性下描述人类推理的失败（1974年）以来，决策研究者几乎放弃了所有的希望，以找到一个公理化的基础来理解人类的判断和决策。相反，他们转向了使用逻辑学的工具箱来解释无数决策偏差和错误的想法。该项目将进一步发展量子概率论（量子理论的数学基础）在人类判断和决策中的新理论应用。量子概率论从根本上不同于经典概率论。关键的问题是，哪一组概率规则能更好地描述人类的判断和决策。在NSF支持的主要研究人员过去几年的研究中，他们已经表明量子概率论提供了一种创新的，连贯的和数学原则的方法来解释判断和决策研究中的许多矛盾发现（即，连接和分离错误，干扰效应，问题顺序效应）。目前的项目将进一步发展和测试一个一致的量子概率帐户的违反经典概率规则的问题顺序的影响。研究人员将扩展顺序效应的量子模型，对顺序效应的方向进行先验预测，并能够解释具有多个顺序水平的测量。该研究计划的广泛和长期目标是通过从量子而不是经典概率原理构建社会和行为科学的概率和动态系统来开辟新天地并开辟新道路。这个项目将研究调查中问题的提问顺序是否重要。研究人员定期在认知科学学会和数学心理学学会的年会上组织关于认知的量子概率模型的研讨会。他们组织了两个专题期刊：一个出现在数学心理学杂志（2009年），另一个是即将在认知科学的主题。他们的工作被引用跨学科，从认知科学，决策科学，经济学，工程学，数学，物理学和天文学。

Ever since Tversky and Kahneman's influential research exposing the failures of classical probability theory to describe human reasoning under uncertainty (1974), decision researchers gave up almost all hope to find an axiomatic foundation for understanding human judgments and decisions. Instead, they turned to the idea of using tool boxes of heuristics to explain myriad decision bias and errors. The project will further develop a new theoretical application of quantum probability theory (the mathematical foundation of quantum theory) to human judgment and decision making. Quantum probability theory fundamentally differs from classical probability theory. The critical question is which set of probability rules provides a better description of human judgment and decision. In the Principal Investigators' past several years of research supported by NSF, they have shown that quantum probability theory provides an innovative, coherent, and mathematically principled approach to account for many paradoxical findings in judgment and decision research (i.e., conjunction and disjunction errors, interference effects, question order effects). The current project will further develop and test a consistent quantum probability account of violations of classic probability rules found in question order effects. The investigators will extend the quantum model for order effects to make a priori predictions about the direction of order effects and also to be able to account for measures with multiple ordinal levels. The broad and long term goal of this research program is to break new ground and pioneer a new path by building probabilistic and dynamic systems for social and behavioral sciences from quantum rather than classical probability principles. This project will study whether it matters in what order questions are asked on a survey. The investigators regularly organize workshops on quantum probability models of cognition at annual meetings of Cognitive Science Society and Society for Mathematical Psychology. They have organized two special journal issues on the topic: one appeared in the Journal of Mathematical Psychology (2009) and the other is forthcoming in Topics in Cognitive Science. Their work has been cited across disciplines, ranging from cognitive science, decision science, economics, engineering, to mathematics, physics, and astronomy.