Quantifying the importance of biological factors in the estimation of larval connectivity and population dynamics in the coastal ocean.

幼虫连通性通过幼虫的扩散量化种群之间的联系强度和途径，是海洋种群动态的关键因素，对海洋空间规划和渔业管理具有广泛的影响。生物物理模型，包括海洋环流模型与拉格朗日粒子跟踪相结合，现在被广泛用于提供幼虫连通性的时空动态，这是通过经验方法无法获得的。然而，在这些模型中，许多用来描述幼虫生活史的生物学假设是相当普遍的，这些假设的影响还有待严格检验。这个项目的目标是量化幼虫生物学的细节在估计连通性和长期种群动态方面的重要性。为了回答这个问题，研究人员将利用南加州湾近岸物种的生物物理模型，研究幼虫生物因素对站点间连通性和长期种群增长的时空影响。研究了4个主要的幼虫生物学因素：(1)温度对幼虫生长、成熟和死亡的影响；(2)垂直游动行为；(3)幼虫生产的时空变异；(4)栖息地对定居的作用。使用SCB的生物物理模型，将通过将包含额外生物因素的连通性估计值与由被动、中性浮力颗粒计算的连通性估计值基线进行比较，统计地评估由于生物因素导致的幼虫连通性差异。研究人员还将采用由连通性估计驱动的空间人口模型来量化生物因素对长期人口动态的影响。该项目将对幼虫生物学的各个方面产生重要的见解，这对于确定幼虫的连通性和预测未来的种群动态至关重要。该项目的成果将提高生物物理建模方法在沿海物种科学研究以及海洋空间规划和渔业管理方面的可靠应用。更广泛的影响本研究的结果将极大地有助于我们对海洋生物动态和种群连通性中循环作用的科学理解。同样重要的是，研究结果将有直接的管理应用。西格尔和肯德尔都参与了海峡群岛国家海洋保护区和加利福尼亚州指定海洋保护区（MPAs）的过程，随着加州海洋生物保护法（MLPA）进程进入南加州湾的监测和评估阶段，这项研究有望做出贡献。pi拥有丰富的经验，涉及本科生和研究生的研究，每年约有20名来自不同背景的学生在他们的实验室参与研究。该项目还将通过支持一名未获得NSF支持的女PI （Simons）和一名女研究生的研究来保持科学的多样性。研究人员将继续在UCSB举行每周一次的空间海洋生态学小组会议，这已经成为研究生、博士后和教职员工活动的纽带。此外，该项目为SCB提供的连通性估计将通过SBC LTER信息管理系统（http://sbc.lternet.edu/data）免费提供给所有感兴趣的研究人员。整个SCB的学者和资源管理人员都非常需要这些连通性估计。与SBC LTER的合作还将扩大他们可以进行的分析类型，并为当前项目和SBC LTER提供附加价值。

Larval connectivity, which quantifies the intensity and pathways of connections among populations through the dispersal of larvae, is a critical factor in marine population dynamics and has broad reaching consequences for marine spatial planning and fisheries management. Biophysical models, consisting of ocean circulation models combined with Lagrangian particle tracking, are now widely used to provide insights into the spatial and temporal dynamics of larval connectivity that remain unobtainable through empirical approaches. However, many of the biological assumptions used to characterize larval life history in these models are quite general and the impacts of these assumptions have yet to be rigorously tested. The goal of this project is to quantify How important are the details of larval biology in estimates of connectivity and long-term population dynamics? To answer this question, the investigators will study the spatial and temporal impacts of larval biological factors on site-to-site connectivity and long-term population growth using a biophysical model for near shore species in the Southern California Bight (SCB). Four major, larval biological factors will be investigated: (1) temperature effects on larval growth, maturation and mortality, (2) vertical swimming behavior, (3) spatial/temporal variability in larval production, and (4) role of habitat on settlement. Using a biophysical model of the SCB, differences in larval connectivity due to the biological factors will be assessed statistically by comparing connectivity estimates that incorporate the additional biological factors to a baseline of connectivity estimates calculated from passive, neutrally buoyant particles. The investigators will also employ a spatial demographic model, driven by the connectivity estimates, to quantify the influence of biological factors on long-term population dynamics. The project will generate significant insights into the various aspects of larval biology that are critical for determining larval connectivity and for projecting population dynamics into the future. The results of this project will improve the credible application of biophysical modeling approaches to scientific studies of coastal species as well as to marine spatial planning and fisheries management.BROADER IMPACTSThe results of this study will contribute greatly to our scientific understanding of the role of circulation in dynamics of marine organisms and population connectivity. As importantly, the results will have direct management applications. Siegel and Kendall have both been involved in the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary's and the State of California's processes to designate marine protected areas (MPAs) and this study is expected to contribute as the State's Marine Life Protection Act (MLPA) process moves into its monitoring and evaluation phase in the Southern California Bight. The PIs have extensive experience involving undergraduate and graduate students in research and ~20 students a year from diverse backgrounds participate in research in their labs. This project will also maintain diversity in the sciences by supporting the research of one female PI with no prior NSF support (Simons) and a female graduate student. The investigators will continue weekly group meetings in spatial marine ecology at UCSB that have become a nexus of activity for graduate students, postdocs and faculty. In addition, the connectivity estimates produced for the SCB from this project will be made freely available to all interested investigators via the SBC LTER information management system (http://sbc.lternet.edu/data). There is a great need for these connectivity estimates by both academics and resource managers throughout the SCB. This collaboration with SBC LTER will also expand the types of analyses they can conduct and provide added value to both the present project and the SBC LTER.