A Metric for Measuring and Quantifying Wind Power Variability

这项研究的目标是开发一种稳健的度量标准，用于测量和预测风电的短期小时内变化性，最终目标是将变化性管理到所需的水平。建议的衡量标准使用统计范围作为风电输出变化的分散度的衡量标准。智力价值：拟议工作的价值在于一种新的指标来量化和预测小时内风能的变化性，以及将其管理到所需水平的方法。新的指标被适当地命名为条件范围指标，提供了给定持续时间、风力发电水平和覆盖率的最大风力发电漂移。将开发分配系统储备以及分布式储能系统规模和控制的新方法，以分别展示该指标在输电和配电系统层面管理变异性的有效性。广泛影响：拟议工作的结果有望提供对风电变异性的基本理解。新的条件范围度量使得对影响变异性的因素和条件的分析成为可能，例如感兴趣的时间(季节)、观测持续时间、风力发电水平和覆盖率。新的指标预计将帮助系统规划者和运营商准确地量化可变性，从而允许更好地整合和管理可变的风力发电。拟议的工作还为编写新的本科生和研究生水平的学习材料提供了额外资源。例子包括但不限于本科水平的课堂项目和使用电池系统模拟和管理变异性的实践高级设计水平的项目，以及开发新的研究生水平的风力发电集成课程。

The objective of this research is to develop a robust metric for measuring and forecasting short-term intra-hour variability of wind power with the ultimate goal of managing the variability to the desired level. The proposed metric uses the statistical range as a measure of dispersion for the varying wind power output. Intellectual Merit: The merit of the proposed work lies in a novel metric to quantify and forecast intra-hour wind power variability and methods to manage it to the desired level. The new metric, appropriately termed conditional range metric, provides the largest wind power excursion over given duration, wind power production level, and coverage rate. New methods for allocating system reserve and sizing and control of distributed energy storage systems will be developed to demonstrate the efficacy of the metric in managing variability at the transmission and distribution system levels, respectively.Broader Impact: The outcome of the proposed work is expected to provide fundamental understanding of wind power variability. The novel conditional range metric makes possible the analysis of factors and conditions such as time (season) of interests, duration of observation, level of wind power production, and coverage rates affecting variability. The new metric is expected to aid system planners and operators to quantify variability accurately, and thus allows for better integration and management of variable wind power. The proposed work also provides additional resources to develop new undergraduate- and graduate-level learning materials. Examples include but not limited to undergraduate-level class projects and hands-on senior-design level projects in simulating and managing variability using a battery system, as well as development of a new graduate-level course in wind power integration.