Non Parametric Gravity: Quantifying Firm Heterogeneity and Measuring Its Macroeconomic Implications

摘要通过对单个企业的研究，国际贸易领域发生了变化。可观察到的企业属性，如企业生产率和国际贸易绩效之间的相关性导致了对国际贸易框架的重新评估，并就企业异质性对各种宏观经济结果的重要性展开了生动的辩论，如贸易收益和贸易自由化后的贸易增长。该项目是对企业异质性进行量化并衡量其宏观经济影响的一项重大努力。它设想建立一个理论和经验框架，以回答国际贸易中公司业绩及其宏观经济影响分析的中心三个关键问题。企业异质性如何影响贸易模型对消除贸易壁垒的预测？如何评估企业异质性的各种来源的重要性，以便改进模型预测？最后，如何利用这些估计来对该模型的政策影响提供更可信的评估？最终，该项目将提高用于与贸易对贸易成本变化有关的政策评估的量化模型的可信度。该项目将探索企业在贸易和贸易模型估计方面的异质性。这项研究将纳入计量经济学和产业组织领域开发的非参数和半参数估计工具，以放松量化贸易模型对企业基本面分布施加的限制性参数形式。该研究建立在三个项目的基础上。第一个项目使用开发的工具，通过使量化模型能够在部门一级捕捉公司一级出口的非线性弹性，提高用于政策评价的量化模型的可信度。第二个项目将把关于企业个人行为的微观数据与基准框架结合起来，以量化额外利润率，通过这些额外利润率，企业异质性可以影响总体结果，并估计单个企业的需求。该项目最终将开发新的应用一般均衡模型，其中纳入了企业异质性，可用于预测未来的贸易政策。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

AbstractThe international trade field has been transformed by the study of individual firms. The correlation between observable firm attributes, such as firm productivity, and international trade performance led to a reevaluation of international trade framework and a vivid debate about the importance of firm heterogeneity for various macroeconomic outcomes, such as the gains from trade and the trade growth after a trade liberalization. This project constitutes a major endeavor to quantify firm heterogeneity and measure its macroeconomic implications. It envisions developing a theoretical and empirical framework in order to answer three key questions at the center of the analysis of firm performance in international trade and its macroeconomic impact. How does firm heterogeneity affect the predictions of trade models for the removal of trade barriers? How can one estimate the importance of various sources of firm heterogeneity in order to improve the model predictions? Finally, how can these estimates used to provide a more credible evaluation of the model's policy implications? Ultimately the project will improve the credibility of quantitative models used for policy evaluations related to trade to trade cost changes.The project will explore firm heterogeneity in trade and on estimation of trade models. The research will incorporate nonparametric and semiparametric estimation tools developed in the fields of Econometrics and Industrial Organization in order to relax the restrictive parametric forms that quantitative trade models have imposed on the distribution of firm fundamentals. The research builds on three projects. The first project uses developed tools to improve the credibility of quantitative models used for policy evaluations by allowing them to capture non-linear elasticities of firm-level exports at the sector-level. The second project will combine micro-data on the individual behavior of firms with the baseline framework to quantify additional margins through which firm heterogeneity can affect aggregate outcomes and estimate individual firm demand. The project will ultimately develop new applied general equilibrium models that incorporate firm heterogeneity which can be used for predictions of trade policy going forward.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.