The Effects of Zoning and Local Regulatory Environment on Housing Prices and Foreclosure Risk

本项目的重点是地方分区和监管环境的特征是否以及如何与止赎风险相关。尽管地方政府对减少最近止赎激增的影响非常感兴趣，但人们对地方司法管辖区可以使用的政策工具如何将止赎风险降至最低知之甚少。对止赎决定因素的研究主要关注于追踪借款人和贷款人的冒险行为、与贷款相关的政策以及监管不力的金融市场。一小部分文献显示了房价、住房供应和丧失抵押品赎回权之间的明确联系。这个项目将探索丧失抵押品赎回权风险和土地使用法规之间的内在联系。调查人员假设，当分区限制住房类型的供应和多样性以及可负担性时，购房者可能被迫进入更高的价格类别，因此可能更容易丧失抵押品赎回权。在其他不利条件(触发事件)下尤其如此，例如当房主收入或住房价值下降时。在最近的房地产泡沫和随后的泡沫破裂期间，次级贷款工具的可获得性增加，可能加剧了这一现象。调查人员将通过以下研究问题来检验这些联系：(1)一个地区的分区住房容量和分区住房类型的多样性与较高的房价上涨速度有何关系？(2)控制其他因素，次级抵押贷款活动高发区是否与当地监管特征和房价变化有关？(3)法规和房价上涨对房主丧失抵押品赎回权的脆弱性有多大影响？由于市政当局通常是负责分区决策的政府实体，他将主要在市政一级使用美国的多个大都市地区来审查这些关系。他还将研究这些城市内的邮政编码和单个地块级别的关联，以测试在这些规模下关于分区和房价的文献所提出的理论关联。由于止赎风险可能受到空间单位以外因素的影响，他将应用空间自回归模型(空间滞后模型)和多水平回归模型来分析跨地理边界和等级尺度的交互作用。该项目将通过系统地将影响住房生产和供应的分区政策纳入止赎风险分析，解决当前与当地情况相关的研究空白。项目调查结果将提供重要证据，以促进审议更有力的政策干预措施，并帮助培养社区对未来冲击的复原力。该项目的框架和结果将通过学术和政策场所广泛传播，并将增加有助于确定负担得起的住房短缺和集中风险地区的工具。

This project focuses on whether and how characteristics of local zoning and regulatory environment are related to foreclosure risks. Despite the strong interest of local governments in reducing the impact of the recent surge in foreclosures, little is known about how the policy tools available to local jurisdictions can be used to minimize the risk of foreclosure. Research on determinants of foreclosures has concerned primarily on tracing the risk-taking behavior of borrowers and lenders, lending-related policies, and poorly regulated financial markets. A small but growing body of literature presents a clear link between housing price, housing supply, and foreclosure. This project will explore the implied connections between foreclosure risk and land-use regulation. The investigator posits that when zoning restricts the supply and diversity of housing types and affordability, homebuyers may be forced into a higher price category and consequently may have a higher vulnerability to foreclose. This can be especially true under additional adverse conditions (trigger events), such as when there is a decline in homeowner income or housing value. This phenomenon may have been exacerbated by increased access to subprime lending instruments during the recent housing bubble and subsequent burst. The investigator will examine these connections through the following research questions: (1) How are the zoned housing capacities and diversity of zoned housing types in an area related to higher rates of housing price escalation? (2) Controlling for other factors, are areas with high rates of sub-prime mortgage activity associated with local regulatory characteristics and changes in housing prices? (3) To what degree did regulations and housing price escalation contribute to the vulnerability of homeowners to foreclose? As municipalities are most often the government entities responsible for zoning decisions, he will examine these relationships primarily at the municipal level using multiple metropolitan areas in the United States. He also will look at the ZIP-code and individual parcel-level associations within these municipalities to test the theoretical associations suggested by the literature on zoning and housing price at these scales. Because foreclosure risk may be affected by factors beyond a spatial unit, he will apply spatial autoregressive models (spatial lag models) and multi-level regression models to analyze interactions across geographical boundaries and hierarchical scales.This project will address the gap in current research related to local conditions by systematically including zoning policies affecting housing production and supply into the foreclosure risk analysis. Project findings will provide important evidence to facilitate consideration of more robust policy interventions and to help foster communities more resilient to future shocks. The framework and findings of this project will be disseminated widely through academic and policy venues and will add to the tools that can help identify affordable housing shortages and areas of concentrated risk.