Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Development or Decay?: Economic Trajectories following Political Turnover in Africa

新的政治领导人何时以及如何克服长期存在的经济障碍？尽管许多国家出现了前景看好的时期，但自独立以来，大多数非洲国家的人均收入几乎没有增加，收入不平等现象加剧。这种“起起落落”的经济表现模式令现任政客和政府官员感到沮丧。人们对领导层更迭将减少腐败并扩大经济机会分配的期望，在包括科特迪瓦、肯尼亚和埃及在内的非洲许多国家引发了流行的反现任运动。世界银行、国际货币基金组织和双边捐助者等国际行为者也反映了这些预期，这些行为者都抓住政治转折点支持经济改革，鼓励在发展中国家进行新的投资。在许多国家，新领导人已经满足了这些高经济期望。例如，马达加斯加、加纳和埃塞俄比亚的政治失误发生在一系列发展指标持续取得进展的时期之前。然而，在其他国家，记录表明，政府换届和换届后的政府有时会导致经济衰退，其特征是不稳定、腐败和撤资。通过追踪马达加斯加总统更替、精英政治行为和经济成果的实地研究，这篇论文的研究将确定领导人更迭的具体特征，并解释为什么一些人刺激经济发展，而另一些人则没有。马达加斯加在过去20年中的四次领导层更迭(如换届)为深入研究其经济影响提供了一个极好的机会。马达加斯加的政治体制、人口趋势和种族分裂与整个非洲的广泛模式相似，马达加斯加最近的更迭是一系列不同过程的结果：1992年的总罢工、1997年的选举过渡、2002年的选举和随后的低级别内战，以及2009年的政变。这些失误伴随着不同的精英互动模式和各种经济结果。这里正在进行的案例研究将比较马达加斯加的失误，利用各种结果和进程来产生关于关键行为者的作用和重要性以及失误的关键特征的假设。在实地研究期间，将采访精英，在马达加斯加各地的四个地点举行焦点小组，并将利用政府档案收集证据和检验假设。案例研究的结果将为对非洲各地的营业额和经济轨迹进行量化分析的结果增加更大的理论深度和经验权重。政治更替的可能性是领导人、他们的盟友和他们的政治对手的一个关键担忧，也是许多国家政治事件的关键驱动因素。在撒哈拉以南非洲最近的历史中，迫使或避免领导层更迭的尝试导致了更多国家的社会动员和暴力，而不仅仅是马达加斯加，包括几内亚、乌干达、津巴布韦和马拉维。在几乎每一个案例中，当前的政治网络对经济机会的控制都是引起民众愤怒的原因，反对派人士预计换届将改善经济状况。同样，国内和国际两级行为者的长期努力试图通过引入任期限制和设计莫·易卜拉欣奖等激励措施来鼓励人员更替(向自愿下台的非洲领导人颁发)。更清楚地了解人员更替如何影响投资，以及哪些特征是重要的，将为公民、反对派团体和国际行为者评估人员更替和政治决定的重要性提供基础，包括任期限制和权力分享协议，这些决定塑造了整个政治系统的人员更替过程。为了促进今后的研究和透明度，本文件的研究结果将在三个环境中提出：学术会议和同行评议的期刊；从托马西纳大学和塔那那利佛大学开始的非洲大学和研究机构；以及决策界的治理部门。

When and how do new political leaders overcome longstanding economic obstacles? Despite promising periods in many countries, per capita incomes in most African countries have scarcely increased and income inequality has grown since independence. This "start-stop" pattern of economic performance generates frustration with current politicians and government officials. Expectations that a leadership change will reduce corruption and expand the distribution of economic opportunities have fueled popular anti-incumbent movements in numerous countries across Africa, including Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya, and Egypt. These expectations are mirrored by international actors, such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and bilateral donors, each of whom seize on political turning points to support economic reforms and encourage new investments in developing countries. In many countries, new leaders have met these high economic expectations. Political turnovers in Madagascar, Ghana, and Ethiopia, for example, preceded periods of sustained progress on a range of development indicators. However, in other countries the record shows that turnovers and post-turnover governments sometimes lead to economic decay, characterized by instability, corruption, and disinvestment. Through field research tracing presidential turnovers, elite political behavior, and economic outcomes in Madagascar, this dissertation research will identify specific characteristics of leadership change and explain why some spur economic development and others do not. Madagascar's four leadership changes (e.g. turnovers) in the past 20 years offer an excellent opportunity for in-depth case study research into their economic effects. Its political institutions, demographic trends, and ethnic divisions are similar to broad patterns across Africa, and Madagascar's recent turnovers resulted from a diverse set of processes: a general strike in 1992, an electoral transition in 1997, an election followed by a low-grade civil war in 2002, and a coup d'etat in 2009. These turnovers were accompanied by distinct patterns of elite interactions and a variety of economic outcomes. The case study research being conducted here will compare Madagascar's turnovers, using the variety of outcomes and processes to generate hypotheses regarding the role and importance of key actors as well as the key characteristics of turnovers. During the field research, elites will be interviewed, focus groups will be held in four sites across Madagascar, and government archives will be utilized to gather evidence and test hypotheses. The findings from the case studies will add greater theoretical depth and empirical weight to the results of a quantitative analysis of turnovers and economic trajectories across Africa. The potential for political turnover is a key concern for leaders, their allies, and their political opponents, and it is a key driver of political events in many countries. In sub-Saharan Africa's recent past, attempts to either force or avoid leadership changes have led to social mobilization and violence in more states than just Madagascar, including Guinea, Uganda, Zimbabwe, and Malawi. In nearly every case, control of economic opportunities by the current political network was a cause of popular anger, and opposition actors expected turnover to improve economic conditions. Similarly, longer-term efforts by actors at the domestic and international level have attempted to encourage turnover by introducing term limits and designing incentives such as the Mo Ibrahim Prize (for leaders in Africa who willingly leave power). A sharper understanding of how turnover affects investment and which characteristics are important would provide a basis for citizens, opposition groups, and international actors to evaluate the importance of turnover and political decisions, including term limits and power-sharing agreements, that shape the process of turnover throughout a political system. To facilitate future research and transparency, the findings from this dissertation research will be presented in three settings: academic conferences and peer-reviewed journals; African universities and research institutions beginning with the Universities of Toamasina and Antananarivo; and the governance sector of the policymaking community.