Combining Prescriptive and Descriptive Decision Theory for Counter-terrorism Decisions

在这个项目中，主要研究者将开发多个决策者的决策分析方法，规定一个决策者的决策，同时对其他决策者的决策进行建模。决策分析和博弈论已被广泛用于协助作出反恐决策。最近，已经提出了允许在一个决策模型中处理防御者决策、攻击者决策和不确定性的方法。然而，这些组合方法假设攻击者和防御者都是理性的决策者。合理性假设适用于防御者，因为决策分析师正在以规定模式工作，以帮助防御者做出合理和最佳的决策。描述性决策理论关注的是真实的人实际上是如何思考和行为的。这些模型的评判标准是它们在预测人们做出的实际选择方面的有效性，以及人们偏离理性、规范理想的许多方式。这些理论更适合于模拟攻击者的决策。这项研究将需要开发的算法，可以解决复杂的影响图与多个决策者使用规定性理论的防御者和攻击者的描述性理论。我们还将开发多属性决策的描述性决策模型，并将其纳入规定性/描述性方法。在更广泛的影响方面，这项研究将有利于国土安全领域的攻击者的行为，同时仍然提供最佳的，合理的规定行动的防御者纳入更现实的模型。这也将有利于一般决策理论。该方法适用于所有的决策情况下，有多个决策者和分析师正试图规定性地帮助他们中的一个做出更好的决策下的不确定性，同时建模的其他决策者的决策。这种情况发生在竞争性讨价还价和谈判，营销和战略，以及其他一般的商业决策。此外，虽然这项研究的重点是规范性地帮助一方在面对另一方的描述性模型时做出更好的决策，但这种方法有可能用于描述性科学，如经济学或政治学，研究人员认为游戏中的一个玩家最好建模为理性，而另一个最好建模为有限理性。这项研究的结果将传播给规定性和描述性决策研究人员，以表明这些方法的真正力量是发现时，他们被带到一起。我们将开发iPad软件，通过直观的触摸界面以图形方式构建和分析这些模型。这可能会显着增加接触这项研究及其集成方法的人数。

In this project, the Principal Investigator will develop decision analytic methods for multiple decision makers that prescribe one decision maker's decisions while descriptively modeling the decisions of the other decision makers. Decision analysis and game theory have been used extensively to assist in making counter-terrorism decisions. Recently, methods have been proposed to allow treatment of defender decisions, attacker decisions, and uncertainties in one decision model. However, these combined approaches assume that both the attacker and defender are rational decision makers. The rationality assumption is appropriate for the defender as the decision analyst is working in a prescriptive mode to help the defender make a rational and optimal decision. Descriptive decision theory focuses on how real people actually think and behave. Such models are judged by their validity in predicting the actual choices people make and capture many of the ways in which people deviate from the rational, prescriptive ideal. These theories are more appropriate for modeling the attacker's decision. This research will require the development of algorithms that can solve complex influence diagrams with multiple decision makers using prescriptive theories for the defender and descriptive theories for the attacker. We will also develop descriptive decision models for multi-attribute decisions and incorporate them in the prescriptive/descriptive approach. In terms of broader impacts, this research will benefit the field of homeland security by incorporating more realistic models of attacker behavior while still providing the optimal, rational prescribed action of the defender. It will also benefit general decision theory. The approach is applicable to all decision situations where there are multiple decision makers and an analyst is attempting to prescriptively help one of them make better decisions under uncertainty while modeling the decisions made by the other decision makers. Such situations occur in competitive bargaining and negotiation, marketing and strategy, as well as other general business decisions. Furthermore, while the focus of this research is to prescriptively help one side make better decisions faced with a descriptive model of the other side, there is the potential for this approach to be used in a descriptive science such as economics or political science, where the researcher believes one player in a game is best modeled as rational while the other is best modeled as boundedly rational. The results of this research will be disseminated to both prescriptive and descriptive decision researchers to show that the true power of these methods is found when they are brought together. We will develop iPad software to construct and analyze such models graphically through an intuitive touch interface. This could significantly increase the number of people exposed to this research and the methodologies it integrates.