Collaborative Research: Speaking the Truth in Maritime Risk Assessment

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Over the past 6 years the principal investigators have developed a methodology for assessing the risk associated with maritimetransportation. The methodology utilizes dynamic simulation of themaritime transportation system, expert judgment elicitation models andprobabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques. The approach has provenuseful in three major maritime ports in the United States i.e. Port ofNew Orleans (Mississippi River in Louisiana), Port Valdez (PrinceWilliam Sound in Alaska) and Port Seattle (Puget Sound in WashingtonState). Two of these studies focused on passenger safety, while theother focused on oil transportation risk. The National Research Council in1998 assessed the methodology and concluded that representation of uncertainty in the maritime risk assessment method is lacking. "The Prince William Sound Risk Assessment is an important step forward in using probabilistic risk assessment methods to assess the safety of transporting oil in large tankersin PWS. Because the data were very limited, the analysis results and the resultingconclusions are not robust and are necessarily uncertain [National ResearchCouncil, 1998]."This NSF project will allow the maritime risk assessment method to liveup to its promise by developing a coherent theoretical framework toaddress uncertainty. The truth is that we are uncertain. Therefore,speaking the truth implies that we express our analysis results in termsof probability curves rather than fixed points estimates. [See, e.g.,Kaplan, 1997]. The intellectual merit of the research stems from thedevelopment of an overarching Bayesian framework for addressinguncertainty when simulation of systems states is combined with availabledata and expert judgment to assess risk and risk interventioneffectiveness. The broader impact of the proposed work is primarilydrawn from its applicability to areas other than maritime accident risksuch as e.g. maritime security risk (intentional events as opposed toaccidents). The framework and methodologies to be developed will beapplicable to other transportation modes, such as aviation or roadsafety. Aside from aviation security and accident risk, the techniquewill be directly transferable to the ever-increasing problem of runwayincursions as a result of increased traffic congestion at our nationalairports.