Collaborative Research: Speaking the Truth in Maritime Risk Assessment

合作研究：在海事风险评估中说出真相

• 批准号: 0213627
• 负责人: Jason Merrick
• 金额: $ 13.65万
• 依托单位: Virginia Commonwealth University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2002-08-15 至 2004-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0213627&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Speaking; Truth; Maritime

Over the past 6 years the principal investigators have developed a methodology for assessing the risk associated with maritimetransportation. The methodology utilizes dynamic simulation of themaritime transportation system, expert judgment elicitation models andprobabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques. The approach has provenuseful in three major maritime ports in the United States i.e. Port ofNew Orleans (Mississippi River in Louisiana), Port Valdez (PrinceWilliam Sound in Alaska) and Port Seattle (Puget Sound in WashingtonState). Two of these studies focused on passenger safety, while theother focused on oil transportation risk. The National Research Council in1998 assessed the methodology and concluded that representation of uncertainty in the maritime risk assessment method is lacking. "The Prince William Sound Risk Assessment is an important step forward in using probabilistic risk assessment methods to assess the safety of transporting oil in large tankersin PWS. Because the data were very limited, the analysis results and the resultingconclusions are not robust and are necessarily uncertain [National ResearchCouncil, 1998]."This NSF project will allow the maritime risk assessment method to liveup to its promise by developing a coherent theoretical framework toaddress uncertainty. The truth is that we are uncertain. Therefore,speaking the truth implies that we express our analysis results in termsof probability curves rather than fixed points estimates. [See, e.g.,Kaplan, 1997]. The intellectual merit of the research stems from thedevelopment of an overarching Bayesian framework for addressinguncertainty when simulation of systems states is combined with availabledata and expert judgment to assess risk and risk interventioneffectiveness. The broader impact of the proposed work is primarilydrawn from its applicability to areas other than maritime accident risksuch as e.g. maritime security risk (intentional events as opposed toaccidents). The framework and methodologies to be developed will beapplicable to other transportation modes, such as aviation or roadsafety. Aside from aviation security and accident risk, the techniquewill be directly transferable to the ever-increasing problem of runwayincursions as a result of increased traffic congestion at our nationalairports.

在过去6年中，主要调查人员制定了一套评估海上运输相关风险的方法。该方法利用了城市轨道交通系统的动态仿真、专家判断启发模型和概率风险评估（PRA）技术。这一方法在美国的三个主要海港，即新奥尔良港（路易斯安那州的密西西比河）、巴尔德斯港（阿拉斯加州的威廉湾）和西雅图港（华盛顿州的普吉特湾），都证明是有用的。其中两项研究侧重于乘客安全，另一项研究侧重于石油运输风险。1998年，国家研究理事会对该方法进行了评估，并得出结论：海事风险评估方法中缺乏不确定性的表示。“威廉王子湾风险评估是使用概率风险评估方法评估PWS中大型油轮运输石油安全性的重要一步。由于数据非常有限，分析结果和得出的结论并不可靠，必然是不确定的[国家研究委员会，1998]。“这个NSF项目将通过开发一个连贯的理论框架来解决不确定性，从而使海上风险评估方法实现其承诺。事实是，我们不确定。因此，说真话意味着我们用概率曲线而不是不动点估计来表达我们的分析结果。[See例如，在一个实施例中，Kaplan，1997年]。该研究的智力价值源于一个总体贝叶斯框架的发展，该框架用于解决系统状态模拟与可用数据和专家判断相结合时的不确定性，以评估风险和风险干预的有效性。拟议工作的更广泛影响主要来自其对海事事故风险以外领域的适用性，例如海事安全风险（故意事件，而不是事故）。有待制定的框架和方法将适用于其他运输方式，如航空或道路安全。除了航空安全和事故风险，该技术将直接转移到日益严重的问题，跑道入侵的结果，在我们的国家机场增加交通堵塞。