IIASA Young Scientists Summer Program: Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Water, Energy, Food, and Climate Relationships in a Decision Making Context

作为国际应用系统分析研究所（IIASA）青年科学家暑期计划（YSSP）参与者的拟议工作将扩展研究人员目前的工作，该研究人员目前的工作重点是对水，能源和食品管理中涉及的复杂权衡和风险进行全面了解。拟议的IIASA工作将侧重于评估美国水资源的需求侧管理如何受到人为引起的气候变化的影响。关于人口、经济增长、技术发展和资源的未来趋势的历史数据和假设将用于制作情景组合。这些情景将与气候情景结合使用，以估计未来70年热电、农业、工业、家庭和公共部门的水需求以及生态系统服务的水需求可能发生的变化。人口增长和人口密度模式、经济增长和发展都增加了对水、能源和食物的需求。气候变化的影响将加剧对这些资源的竞争，特别是考虑到水、能源和粮食之间紧密的相互关系。虽然对个别资源的需求进行了研究，但尚未对现成的数据进行系统评价，以评价水-能源-粮食的联系。虽然这些估计不可能考虑到所有可能的未来，但它们将揭示不确定性，并促进对气候变化、资源利用以及社会经济和环境驱动因素之间联系影响的进一步了解。这项工作的结果将与多属性效用分析（MAU）一起使用，该分析将被设计为基于利益相关者的决策支持框架；这样一个框架将使美国的利益相关者能够以更明智的方式共同管理水、能源和粮食资源。传播预期结果是这项工作的一个关键方面，因为预期结果将用于支持决策者及其信息需求。本提案中提出的所有结果将发表在同行评议的期刊上，在国家会议上提出，并在范德比尔特能源与环境研究所的网页上提供。除了获得重要的研究技能外，在IIASA进行研究还将扩大研究人员的能力。让她对全球环境、经济、社会和政治问题有更多的了解。与志趣相投的同龄人建立联系的机会将促进未来的伙伴关系。资源安全和决策是一个多方面的、复杂的研究领域；在跨学科和国际合作方面获得的经验和培训将对研究人员有很大的帮助。我的职业目标。

The proposed work as an International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP) participant would expand the current work of the researcher which is currently focused on developing a comprehensive understanding of the complex tradeoffs and risks involved in water, energy, and food management. The proposed work for IIASA will focus on estimating how demand side management of U.S. water resources may be affected by anthropogenic induced climate change. Historical data on and assumptions regarding future trends of population, economic growth, technological development, and resources will be used to make a portfolio of scenarios. These scenarios will be used in conjunction with climate scenarios to estimate how water demands from thermoelectric, agricultural, industrial, domestic, and public sectors, as well as water requirements for ecosystem services, may change over the next seventy years. Increased population and patterns of population density, economic growth, and development all increase water, energy, and food demands. The impacts of a changing climate will exacerbate competition for these resources, especially given the strong interrelationships among water, energy, and food. Although demand for individual resources has been studied, a systematic evaluation of readily available data has not been undertaken to evaluate water-energy-food linkages. Although these estimates cannot possibly consider the full range of plausible futures, they will expose uncertainties and promote further understanding of the impacts of linkages among climate change, resource use, and socio-economic and environmental drivers. The results of this work will be used with a multiattribute utility analysis (MAU) that will be designed to serve as a stakeholder based decision-support framework; such a framework will allow U.S. stakeholders to co-manage water, energy, and food resources in a more informed manner. Dissemination of the anticipated results is a key aspect of this work, as the results are intended to be used to support decision makers and their informational needs. All results posed in this proposal will be published in peer-reviewed journals, presented at national conferences, and available on the Vanderbilt Institute for Energy and Environment webpage. In addition to gaining important research skills, conducting research at IIASA will expand the researcher?s knowledge base and allow her to gain additional perspective on global environmental, economic, social, and political issues. The opportunity to network with peers who have similar interests will foster future partnerships. Resource security and decision-making are multifaceted and complex research areas; experience and training gained with respect to interdisciplinary and international collaboration will strongly contribute to the researcher?s career goals.