Uneven Growth, Economic Inequality and Social Conflict

摘要提案标题：不均衡增长、经济不平等和社会冲突提案编号：SE-1261560主要调查者：Ray，Debrai在许多发展中国家，经济增长从根本上讲是不平衡的。增长不平衡和经济不平等对可能发生暴力社会冲突的影响是本项目的主题。它继续并扩大了一项关于经济发展、分配和冲突的研究计划。该计划基于两个核心断言。首先，社会冲突具有很强的经济关联性：人均收入和自然资源收入等变量决定了这种冲突的发生率和程度。然而，经济上的富人和穷人之间的冲突的经典表达相对较少；通常，交战的群体是由种族或宗教等非经济标志来划分的。以前的研究表明，种族两极分化和分裂对冲突有很大影响。目前的项目通过考虑族裔群体的经济特征以及这些特征如何在人口特征之外确定社会冲突，从而使这项研究更进一步。分析首先对Esteban和Ray(《美国经济评论》第101卷，1345-1374,2011年)提出的理论框架进行了重大扩展，将族裔冲突的共同经济和人口决定因素包括在内。结果表明，这两组变量以特定的方式相互作用，约束了要测试和(在某些情况下)估计的函数关系。该书的重点是群体内和群体间的经济不平等及其对冲突的影响。基于该理论的经验性实践被应用于横截面的国家。然后，该项目使用相同的框架来为印度的印度教-穆斯林暴力的经验性研究提供信息。本节的重点是集团人均收入的变化(而不是集团内的分配)。有人认为，印度穆斯林群体的收入与随后的宗教冲突呈正相关，而印度教的收入则相反。该理论允许对这一惊人的经验发现进行解释。该项目的最后部分从理论上检验了一些补充论点，这些论点指出，面对经济差距和不平衡的变化，种族暴力是突出的。该项目的这一部分采取了一条与传统假设截然不同的路线，传统假设认为，这种经济特征与阶级冲突而不是种族冲突的可能性更大。更广泛的影响：研究暴力冲突，特别是发展中国家内部的暴力冲突，具有极其重要的意义。不平衡的增长往往涉及到人力和物力资源的重大重新分配。即使从长期角度来看，这种增长是有必要的，但它可能在中短期内带来巨大的困难，而且它可能会对那些在有生之年永远得不到充分补偿的个人和群体造成这样的影响。经济增长会抑制冲突，还是会加剧冲突？不平等和冲突之间有什么关系？为什么阶级冲突可能会让位于种族冲突？其目的是展示经济冲突理论如何产生一套新的可检验的预测，这些预测整合了经济学、政治学和人口学。希望政治学家、社会学家和民族志学者会发现这样的尝试是有用的，是对他们自己工作的补充。为此，目前的项目继续推动出版一本关于种族暴力经济学的书。其目的是以连贯的方式将经济学、政治学和社会学关于发展中国家冲突这一主题的大量文献汇集在一起。首席研究员计划开发和教授一门关于“不平衡增长和冲突”的课程，为写这样一本书制定一个详细的提纲。

Abstract Proposal Title: Uneven Growth, Economic Inequality and Social Conflict Proposal Number: SES - 1261560Principal Investigator: Ray, DebrajIn many developing countries, economic growth has been fundamentally uneven. The effect of uneven growth and economic inequality on the potential for violent social conflict is the subject of this project. It continues and extends a research program on economic development, distribution and conflict. That program rests on two core assertions. First, social conflict has strong economic correlates: variables such as per-capita income and natural resource revenues shape the incidence and extent of such conflict. Yet, classical expressions of conflict between economic haves and have-nots are relatively rare; often, warring groups are demarcated by noneconomic markers such as ethnicity or religion. Previous research has shown that ethnic polarization and fractionalization strongly influences conflict. The current project takes the research a step further by considering the economic characteristics of ethnic groups and how these enter into the determination of social conflict over and above the demographic characteristics. The analysis begins with a significant extension of the theoretical framework introduced by Esteban and Ray (American Economic Review vol. 101, 1345-1374, 2011) to include joint economic and demographic determinants of ethnic conflict. It is shown that the two sets of variables interact in specific ways, that discipline the functional relationships to be tested and (in some cases) estimated. The emphasis in is on within-group and cross-group economic inequality and its effects on conflict. The empirical exercise based on the theory is applied to a cross-section of countries.The project then uses the same framework to inform an empirical study of Hindu-Muslim violence in India. The emphasis in this section is on changes in group per-capita incomes (rather than within-group distribution). It is argued that Muslim group incomes in India have been positively associated with subsequent religious conflict, while the opposite is true of Hindu incomes. The theory permits an interpretation of this striking empirical finding.The last part of the project theoretically examines a number of complementary arguments that point towards the salience of ethnic violence in the face of economic disparity and uneven change. This part of the project takes a very different route from traditional hypotheses, which would associate such economic characteristics with a greater probability of class, not ethnic, conflict.Broader Impacts: the study of violent conflict, especially within developing countries, is of immense importance. Uneven growth often involves significant reallocation of resources, human and physical. Even if such growth is warranted from a long-term perspective, it can bring immense hardship in the short to medium run, and it can do so to individuals and groups who will never be adequately compensated in their lifetime. Does economic growth stifle conflict, or might it exacerbate it? What is the relationship between inequality and conflict? Why might class conflict give way to ethnic conflict? The objective is to show how the economic theory of conflict gives rise to a new set of testable predictions which integrates economics, politics and demography. It is hoped that political scientists, sociologists and ethnographers will find such an attempt useful and complementary to their own work. To this end, the current project continues to push towards a book on the economics of ethnic violence. The intention is to put together, in a cohesive way, a large literature from economics, political science and sociology on the topic of conflict in developing countries. The principal investigator plans to develop and teach a course on "Uneven Growth and Conflict," to develop a detailed outline for the writing of such a book.