Scaling up epizootic dynamics - Linking individual infection to spatial spread of a disease using Bayesian hierarchical approaches

决定疾病在人群中传播速度的因素可能取决于疾病在受感染个体内部传播的速度，因此个体内部的过程对于理解个体之间的疾病传播非常重要。通常，疾病数据是在单一的参考尺度上收集的，例如在个体内，而其他尺度被忽略。这项研究将开发统计方法和模型，将从个体到景观的各个尺度的信息汇集在一起。用于开发这些模型的实验数据将集中在秋粘虫及其致命病原体杆状病毒之间易于操纵的宿主-病原体相互作用上。从实验数据导出的传输动力学模型将量化小尺度过程影响大尺度动力学的程度，以及是否忽略尺度问题。总的来说，开发的建模框架可用于了解疾病传播，预测传播概率，以及包括人类病原体在内的其他疾病的爆发严重程度。从农业的角度来看，致命的杆状病毒是一种生物杀虫剂。这项研究将有助于它们的使用和发展。此外，这个多学科项目将涉及一些研究生和博士后研究人员。所进行的研究将培训下一代统计学家、生态学家和病理学家，他们将加强跨这些学科工作产生的思想和方法。

What determines how fast a disease spreads through a population may depend on how fast the disease spreads inside an infected individual so that processes within an individual are important for understanding disease transmission between individuals. Often, disease data are collected at a single scale of reference, such as within the individual, and other scales are ignored. This research will develop statistical methods and models that bring together information across scales ranging from the individual to the landscape. The experimental data used to develop these models will focus on an easily manipulated host-pathogen interaction between the fall armyworm and its lethal pathogen, a baculovirus. The models of transmission dynamics derived from the experimental data will quantify the extent that smaller scale processes affect larger scale dynamics and whether or not ignoring scale matters.In general, the modeling framework developed can be used to understand disease transmission, forecast transmission probability, and outbreak severity for other diseases including human pathogens. From an agricultural perspective, lethal baculoviruses represent a biological insecticide. This research will aid in their use and development. Additionally, this multidisciplinary project will involve a number of graduate students and postdoctoral researchers. The research conducted will train the next generation of statisticians, ecologists, and pathologists who will strengthen the ideas and methodologies generated from working across these disciplines.