AGS-PRF: Mechanisms Driving Atmospheric River Variability--An Investigation Using High Resolution Global Climate Model Simulations

该项目将研究美国西部被称为大气河流的强降水事件。这些事件的可预测性和变率将在高分辨率全球气候模式输出中得到表征，再分析和观测用于表征模式偏差。目标是(i)在观测、再分析和使用各种检测算法的高分辨率模式模拟中表征这些风暴频率和强度的气候学和自然变化；（ii）利用后播模拟分析这些事件的可预测性，并确定这些事件发展和被抑制的大气和海洋条件；（三）结合上述知识，利用高分辨率全球模式模拟来检查未来大气河流的变化，并检验利用当前气候进行分类和预测的稳健性。该项目具有更广泛的影响，因为它将深入了解美国西部，特别是加利福尼亚州的极端降水事件

This project will examine heavy precipitation events in the western United States known as atmospheric rivers. The predictability and variability of these events will be characterized in high-resolution global climate model output with reanalysis and observations used to characterize model biases. The goals are to (i) characterize the climatology and natural variability of these storms frequencies and strength in observations, reanalysis, and high-resolution model simulations using various detection algorithms; (ii) analyze the predictability of such events using hindcast simulations and identifying atmospheric and oceanic conditions in which these events develop and are suppressed; and (iii) combine the knowledge gained above to utilize high-resolution global model simulations to examine changes in atmospheric rivers in the future and test the robustness of classifications and predictions made using the present climate. This project has high broader impacts as it will shed insights into extreme precipitation events in western US, specifically California