EAGER: Quantitative Environmental Risk Assessment of Energy Extraction from Deep Shale Formations

1352753(花生)。目前尚不存在对用于天然气生产的水力压裂液对环境影响风险的可靠定量评估。相反，有几个？最坏的情况？用数学模型得到的评价。然而，这种方法无法估计可饮用含水层受到水力压裂流体影响的可能性。为了填补这一知识空白，PI建议通过一个概念验证实例，创建并应用一种新的风险评估方法，该方法可以具体计算Marcellus页岩选定区域上方饮用水供应受到水力压裂流体影响的可能性。他将在分析中使用故障树，并在较小程度上使用事件树，因为系统故障标准是已知的，因此感兴趣的是可能导致其发生的事件。通过正式的风险评估，他将为所涉及的地质地点的概念证明提供一份定量说明，说明水力压裂法对饮用水供应产生不可接受影响的可能性。结果将为有关这种环境风险的辩论提供信息，并使其达到更明智的水平。此外，通过检查影响风险的因素，例如地质地层完整性，可以制定策略以最小化风险。该项目将对这种环境风险进行客观、定量的评估，从而形成讨论的基础。在故障树分析的某些步骤中，对于一个概率值或另一个概率值是否合适存在分歧，但是如果研究团体在方法上达成一致，那么将取得重大进展。PI随后可以查看所选概率对风险的敏感性，这将为建议适当的投资提供一个可能的基础，以便在需要时收集更完整的信息。相对于更广泛的影响，PI在佛蒙特大学（UVM）发起了一个新项目，招收工程专业的少数族裔，该项目非常成功。该项目旨在吸引历史悠久的黑人高中的优秀本科生到弗吉尼亚大学，以增加工程领域的种族多样性。被选中参加这个项目的学生将在UVM校园里度过一个星期，在那里有关于工程各个方面的讲座。这个项目的一个更广泛的影响目标是创建和提供一个独立的校园项目，在水力压裂法的辩论中，工程的作用；一个讲座将专门介绍水力压裂的科学和工程，另一个讲座将分析这一过程的环境风险。学生们将被要求对这个项目进行评估。我们将向每位学生提供一份表格，以评估讲座的益处。此外，公众希望了解水力压裂法对饮用水供应的风险。使用这种方法进行的计算将首次允许对水力压裂液到达可饮用含水层的风险进行实际量化。我们将设计一个非技术讲座，向非工程师的大学生介绍水力压裂的一般情况，特别是这个项目所产生的风险概念。

1352753 (Pinder). A credible quantitative assessment of the risk of hydrofracking fluids used for gas production impacting the environment does not exist. Rather, there are a few ?worst case scenario? evaluations obtained using mathematical models. However, this approach provides no estimate of the probability of a potable aquifer being impacted by hydrofracking fluids. To fill this knowledge gap the PI proposes to create and apply, through a proof of concept example, a new risk-assessment methodology that allows for the specific calculation of the probability that potable water supplies above a selected area of the Marcellus shale will be impacted by hydrofracking fluids. He will use a fault tree, and to a lesser degree an event tree, in his analysis because the system failure criterion is known and therefore of interest are the events that could contribute to its occurrence. Through a formal risk assessment he will provide a quantitative statement, for the proof of concept geological site addressed, of the probability of an unacceptable impact of hydrofracking on potable water supplies. The result will inform the debate regarding this environmental risk and bring it to a more intellectually informed level. Moreover, by examining those factors that impact the risk, such as geological formation integrity, strategies can be formulated to minimize that risk. This project will provide an objective, quantitative assessment of this environmental risk that can form a basis for discussion. There will be disagreements about whether one probability value or another is appropriate for some steps in the fault tree analysis, but if the research community agree on the methodology, significant progress will have been made. The PI can subsequently look at the sensitivity of the selected probabilities on the risk, and this will provide one possible basis to propose appropriate investments for gathering more complete information as needed. Relative to broader impacts, the PI initiated a new program at the University of Vermont (UVM) for minority recruitment in engineering which has been very successful. This program is designed to attract outstanding undergraduates from historically black high schools to UVM to increase the ethnic diversity in engineering. Students selected for this program spend one week on the UVM campus where lectures are provided on various aspects of engineering. One broader impact goal of this project is to create and deliver a stand-alone unit for the on-campus program on the role of engineering in the debate on hydrofracking; one lecture will be dedicated to the science and engineering of hydrofracking and the other to the analysis of the environmental risk of this process. The students will be asked to provide an assessment of the project. A form will be provided to each student to evaluate how beneficial the lecture was. Additionally, the general public seeks to know the risk to potable water supplies of hydrofracking. The calculations that will be made using this approach will, for the first time, allow for an actual quantification of the risk of hydrofracking fluids reaching potable aquifers. A non-technical lecture will be designed to bring hydrofracking in general, and the risk concepts developed by this project in particular, to college students that are non-engineers.