A Dangerous Liaison? Ethnicity, Natural Resources and Civil Conflict Onset

根据关于冲突的文献，种族和自然资源在一定条件下是国家内部冲突的风险。从理论上讲，种族多样性和资源的结合应该是特别危险的，因为两者结合起来可能会产生强烈的起义动机，并通过提供财政手段和招募资源来增加一个民族的叛乱能力。然而，迄今为止，关于种族和资源的研究是相互独立的。此外，以往的研究仅在相当总体的水平上考察了因果机制。这个项目结合了这两种文学流派，并试图调查在资源和种族多样性并存的情况下可能导致暴力的确切机制。在方法上，该项目采用低于国家一级的地理参照，并在三级分析中结合宏观、中观和微观观点。在宏观一级，将建立一个全球数据库，以确定资源重叠的地点、有关的和被剥夺的族裔群体和冲突，以便揭示一般模式。在中一级，该项目将对两个相关的国家（玻利维亚和尼日利亚）进行国内比较，在这两个国家中，资源和相关族裔群体的存在以及暴力程度因国家以下单位而异。在微观一级，将在每个国家精心挑选的两个当地地点进行广泛的实地工作，目的是揭示种族和资源结合导致或不导致暴力的确切机制。

According to the literature on conflict, ethnicity and natural resources are under certain conditions risks for intra-state conflict. Theoretically, the combination of ethnic diversity and resources should be particularly dangerous as both together may generate strong motives for uprising and increase an ethnic groups’ insurgency capacity, by providing financial means and recruitment pools. However, studies on ethnicity and resources have operated independently of each other thus far. Moreover, previous research has investigated causal mechanisms only at a rather aggregate level. This project unifies both literature strands and seeks to investigate the precise mechanisms that may lead to violence in the presence of both resources and ethnic diversity. Methodologically, the project engages in geo-referencing below the national level and combines macro-, meso- and micro-perspectives in a three-level analysis. At the macro-level, a global database will be created that identifies overlapping locations of resources, relevant and deprived ethnic groups and conflict, in order to uncover general patterns. At the meso-level, the project will engage in a within-country comparison of two pertinent country cases (Bolivia and Nigeria) in which the presence of resources and relevant ethnic groups, as well as the levels of violence, vary across subnational units. At the micro-level, extensive field work in two carefully-selected local sites per country will aim at uncovering the exact mechanisms by which the combination of ethnicity and resources leads to violence or not.