Water Scarcity Risk for the Global Trade Network

1438197（徐）。该项目的完成将提供一个综合工具，以评估全球供应链行业的水资源短缺风险。研究结果将帮助企业制定战略，以减轻水资源短缺风险，并为全球水资源保护做出贡献。虽然结果是特定的水资源短缺风险，建模框架将普遍适用于研究其他环境挑战，如生物多样性丧失和生态系统退化所带来的风险。将开发一个基于网络的交互式可视化工具，以广泛传播研究成果，提高全球贸易网络对缺水风险的认识。本研究的结果旨在帮助贸易和环境政策的决策，以减轻严重全球化供应链的行业的水资源短缺风险。评估全球贸易网络的风险的目标将通过开发和应用概率网络分析框架来实现。在多地区投入产出模型的基础上，将世界经济作为以各国产业为节点、以产业间的商品和服务交换为连接点的贸易网络进行研究。这些行业因国家一级或河流流域一级当地缺水而遭受经济损失的相对风险将被用来衡量全球贸易网络。将使用复杂网络分析指标和方法分析加权的全球贸易网络，以确定易受水资源短缺风险影响的“热点”。概率网络分析框架将被推广，以更广泛地应用于水资源短缺以外的其他环境挑战所带来的风险。该项目还将开发一个基于网络的交互式可视化工具，以展示研究成果并促进有效的教学和学习。

1438197 (Xu). The completion of this project will provide an integrated tool to evaluate water scarcity risks for industries with global supply chains. The results will help businesses develop strategies to mitigate water scarcity risk and contribute to global water conservation. Although the results are specific for water scarcity risk, the modeling framework will be generally applicable for studying risks posed by other environmental challenges such as biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation. An interactive web-based visualization tool will be developed to broadly disseminate the research results to raise awareness of water scarcity risk for the global trade network. The results of this research are targeted to help decision-making in trade and environmental policies to mitigate water scarcity risk for industries with significantly globalized supply chains.The objective of evaluating risks for the global trade network will be achieved by developing and applying a probabilistic network analysis framework. Based on multi-regional input-output models, the world economy will be studied as a trade network in which nodes are industries in each country and links represent exchanges of goods and services between industries. Relative risks of economic losses in those industries due to local water scarcity at either the country level or river basin level will be used to weight the global trade network. The weighted global trade network will be analyzed using complex network analysis metrics and methods to identify "hotspots" vulnerable to water scarcity risks. The probabilistic network analysis framework will be generalized for broader applications to risks posed by other environmental challenges in addition to water scarcity. The project will also develop an interactive web-based visualization tool to present research results and facilitate effective teaching and learning.