Introducing a Means to Characterize Location-Specific Space Weather Hazards of Societal Significance in the Near-Earth Environment

拟议工作的目标是大大提高我们理解和预测近地环境中空间天气对社会危害的能力。具体来说，日冕物质抛射与地球电离层、大气和岩石圈相互作用时的影响模型将被生成。这项工作的应用包括：(1)保护电网免受空间天气造成的停电；(2)在空间天气事件中保持通信能力。2008年美国国家科学院的一份报告指出，极端太空天气事件“虽然罕见，但在未来的某个时候可能会再次发生。”然而，很明显，1859级空间天气驱动的地磁风暴的再次发生可能会比1859年更严重地扰乱现代社会，因为重要但脆弱的电子技术（如电网和无线通信）的扩散。所提出的工作方法涉及到PI在过去十年中开发的地球电离层波导的详细、高分辨率麦克斯韦方程有限差分时域（FDTD）模型的应用。这些三维（3-D）模型将包括诸如地球地形、海洋、岩石圈组成和电离层等离子体（小型和大型结构）等细节。输出数据将是特定位置的电磁场数据，用于提高我们在空间天气事件中维持电网运行和通信的能力。

The goal of the proposed work is to greatly improve our ability to understand and predict space weather hazards on society in the near-Earth environment.  Specifically, models of the impact of a coronal mass ejection originating from the sun as it interacts with the Earth's ionosphere and atmosphere and lithosphere will be generated.  Applications of this work include:  (1) protecting the electric power grid from blackouts caused by space weather; and (2) maintaining communication capabilities during space weather events. A 2008 National Academies report indicated that extreme space weather events, "though rare, are likely to occur again some time in the future."  However, it is clear that the re-occurrence of an 1859-magnitude space weather-driven geomagnetic storm could disrupt modern society to a much greater degree than in 1859 due to the proliferation of vital but vulnerable electrotechnologies (such as power grids and wireless communications).The methodology of the proposed work involves the application of detailed, high-resolution Maxwell's equations finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) models of the Earth-ionosphere waveguide developed by the PI over the past decade.  These three-dimensional (3-D) models will include such details as the Earth's topography, oceans, lithosphere composition, and ionosphere plasma (both small and large-scale structures).  Output data will be location-specific electromagnetic field data that will be used to improve our ability to maintain power grid operations and communications during space weather events.