OPUS: Ectotherms In Changing Climates

体温由环境决定的生物（如鱼类、昆虫和爬行动物）对环境变化（包括温度、降雨、食物和捕食者）特别敏感。该项目的首席研究员花了30多年的时间研究这些生物（特别是鲑鱼，磷虾，黄蜂和经济上重要的果蝇，如地中海果蝇），总是受到重要应用问题的激励，但同时寻求对物种种群动态的基本理解。在这项工作中，研究人员开发了新的计算机建模方法，将模型与现场和实验室研究联系起来的方法，既解决了环境问题，又产生了新的理解和研究方向。这个项目将为综合研究人员职业生涯中发展起来的思想提供机会。该项目的结果将是一个可供其他科学家、资源管理者和利益相关者使用的框架，以更好地了解物种对气候变化的反应。在他漫长的职业生涯中，这个项目的首席研究员开发了一种建模方法，将a)行为生态学和种群生物学联系起来，b)塑造生物行为和生活史的近因和终因，c)个体行为与种群动态的变化，d)进化和生态学，e)同时解决基础和应用问题。这项工作使状态依赖生活史理论成为理解环境变化对变温动物的影响以及综合理解和预测变温动物对环境变化的反应所需的科学的最有力工具之一，并通过随机动态规划实现。该项目将支持编写一份主要的综合出版物，将这一理论与其他理解变温动物在不断变化的环境中的方法结合起来，利用案例研究，同时突出特定地点的物种，并制定一般原则。科学家们在他们的职业生涯中常常意识到他们应该研究更多的定量方法，学习如何用数学方法解决生物学问题，但为时已晚。这个项目的结果将成为人们学习如何对观察到的模式背后的机制进行假设的来源，以及如何将它们转化为一个生动的、呼吸的数学模型，使其具有直观的意义，同时揭示可能不是直观的过程或趋势。

Organisms whose body temperature is set by the environment (such as fish, insects, and reptiles) are particularly sensitive to environmental change (which includes temperature, rainfall, food, and predators). The principal researcher of this project has spent more than thirty years working on such organisms (especially salmon, krill, and wasps and economically important fruit flies, such as the Mediterranean fruit fly), always motivated by an important applied problem but at the same time seeking fundamental understanding of species population dynamics. In doing this work, the researcher has developed novel computer modeling methods, ways of connecting models and field and laboratory studies, and has both solved environmental problems as well as generated new understanding and research directions. This project will provide the opportunity for a synthesis of the ideas developed over the researcher's career. The result of the project will be a framework that can be used by other scientists, resource managers, and stakeholders for a better understanding species responses to climate change.During his long career, the principal researcher of this project has developed modeling approaches that link a) behavioral ecology and population biology, b) proximate and ultimate factors that shape behavior and life history of organisms, c) variation in individual behavior to population dynamics, d) evolution and ecology, and e) simultaneously address basic and applied questions. This work has made state dependent life history theory, as implemented by stochastic dynamic programming, one of the most powerful tools for understanding the effects of environmental change on ectotherms and for synthesizing the science needed for understanding and predicting the responses of ectotherms to environmental change. The project will support the development of a major synthetic publication that will situate this theory with other approaches to understanding ectotherms in changing environments, using case studies to simultaneously highlight species in specific locations and to develop general principles. Scientists often realize too late in their careers that they should have studied more quantitative methods and learned how to solve problems in biology using mathematical methods. The result of this project will be a source for people to learn how to hypothesize at the mechanisms behind observed patterns, and how to translate them into a living, breathing mathematical model that makes intuitive sense and yet reveals processes or trends that may not be intuitive.