Collaborative Research: Mechanisms supporting persistence of a key plankton species during climate change on the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf

在缅因州海湾地区，近年来海洋表面迅速变暖，引起了研究和资源管理界、渔业和公众对沿海海洋生态系统影响的关注。这个跨学科的合作项目将提高对控制东北沿海海洋食物网中特别重要的浮游动物丰度的物理和生物过程的理解。海洋桡足类哲水蚤（Calanus finmarchicus）大约有米粒大小，是鲱鱼和其他饲料鱼以及濒危的北方露脊鲸的主要猎物。本研究将探讨C.尽管最近海洋变暖，但从寒冷的加拿大沃茨进入缅因州湾的finmarchicus，以及在相对寒冷的缅因州沿海洋流中的生长和繁殖，足以为该地区提供吸引和滋养鱼类、海鸟和哺乳动物所需的数量，这些鱼类、海鸟和哺乳动物依赖其能量丰富的生命阶段。研究小组将开发一个计算机模型，将对该物种生活史的广泛了解与洋流和温度联系起来。将根据两个地点的实地收集情况检验该模型的结果。这项研究还将有助于新的综合哨兵监测网络，这是联邦和州机构计划与学术研究参与的联合努力，以监测东北沿海大陆架未来的生态系统变化。该项目将在跨学科研究方面培训一名研究生和博士后科学家，并为一名早期职业调查人员提供支持，该项目将采取一种过程建模方法，考虑到生命史与水深测量和环流之间的区域和中尺度相互作用，以增进对南极物种分布变化的理解。它将结合联合收割机二十年的研究哲水蚤finmarchicus生活史，包括滞育，与高分辨率的区域循环模型到一个创新的应用三维，物理生物模型。模拟方法代表了一个进步的气候预测的物种范围耦合拉格朗日的角度与当地的过程，以更好地解决复杂的范围边界。它将使用拉格朗日参数，如有限尺度或有限时间的李雅普诺夫指数，将粒子轨迹转化为代表平流制度结构的标量场。该模型将通过在两个时间序列站的研究船上收集的生命率和人口统计数据的测量结果来提供信息和进行测试。它将被用于在时间向后和向前的模式，以测试有关C的来源和目的地的假设。finmarchicus在缅因州的海湾，匹配/不匹配的物候的影响，以及气候强迫情景对平流路径的探索影响。

In the Gulf of Maine region, rapid warming of the ocean surface in recent years has raised concern in the research and resource management communities, fishing industry and the general public about effects on the coastal marine ecosystem. This interdisciplinary, collaborative project will improve understanding of the physical and biological processes controlling the abundance of a planktonic animal that is particularly important in the food web of the northeast coastal ocean. About the size of a grain of rice, the marine copepod Calanus finmarchicus is the primary prey for herring and other forage fish, as well as for the endangered northern right whale. This study will examine whether transport of C. finmarchicus into the Gulf of Maine from cold Canadian waters, in combination with growth and reproduction in the relatively cold Maine Coastal Current, is sufficient to supply the region with the numbers needed to attract and nourish the fish, seabirds and mammals that rely on its energy rich life stages, despite recent ocean warming. The research team will develop a computer model that links extensive understanding of the species' life history with ocean currents and temperature. Results from the model will be tested against field collections at two locations. This study will also contribute to the new Integrated Sentinel Monitoring Network, a joint effort planned by federal and state agencies with academic research participation to monitor future ecosystem change on the northeastern coastal shelf. It will train a graduate student and postdoctoral scientist in interdisciplinary research and also provide support for an early-career investigator.The project will take a process modeling approach that takes into account regional and mesoscale interaction between life history and bathymetry and circulation to improve understanding of planktonic species distribution shifts. It will combine two decades of research on Calanus finmarchicus life history, including diapause, with a high resolution regional circulation model into an innovative application of a three dimensional, physical-biological model. The modeling approach represents an advancement of climate forecasts of species ranges by coupling a Lagrangian perspective with local processes to better resolve complex range boundaries. It will use Lagrangian parameters such as finite-scale or finite-time Lyapunov exponents, translating particle trajectories into scalar fields that represent the structure of the advective regime. The model will be informed by and tested with measurements of vital rates and demographic data collected on a research vessel at two time series stations. It will be used in backward-in-time and forward-in-time modes to test hypotheses about sources and destinations of C. finmarchicus in the Gulf of Maine, effects of match/mismatch in phenologies, and exploration effects of climate forced scenarios on advective pathways.