Investigating the influence of thermal history on coral growth response to recent and predicted end-of-century ocean warming across a cascade of ecological scales

全球海洋表面温度的上升降低了珊瑚的生长速度，从而对全世界珊瑚礁生态系统的健康产生了负面影响。最近对热带造礁珊瑚的研究表明，珊瑚对海洋变暖的反应可能受到其先前海水温度暴露的影响-它们的热历史。虽然这些最新的研究结果突出了珊瑚生长对气候变化的反应的显著变化，但珊瑚的热历史影响它们如何应对海洋变暖的空间尺度以及它们如何可能对预测的未来海洋温度上升作出反应仍然存在不确定性。本研究探讨了热历史对珊瑚生长的影响，以应对最近和预测的海水温度增加，在四个生态相关的空间尺度，从珊瑚礁生态系统，珊瑚礁群落，珊瑚礁种群，一个单独的珊瑚群落。通过了解珊瑚过去在一系列生态尺度上的反应，首席研究员将能够提高预测其敏感性和恢复力的能力，然后可以应用于面对气候变化的珊瑚礁保护。这一研究项目将扩大代表性不足群体的大学生的参与，并利用少数群体的声音和叙述教育公共广播听众。这位科学家将利用现有的和新的合作伙伴关系来招募和培训少数民族本科生，从而使他们能够在佛罗里达、伯利兹和巴拿马的实地考察点附近与高中生接触。通过同侪建议，本科生将记录在数字新闻网站上向公众传播这项研究。大学生和科学家的声音将为公共广播节目的制作奠定基础，该节目探讨适应和复原力的主题-珊瑚礁生态系统内的压力耐受能力。该项目将为一名博士后研究员和几名研究生提供实地和实验室研究培训、教学和指导以及专业发展的机会。研究结果将使决策者从佛罗里达，中美洲堡礁系统国家，和几个中美洲国家受益于加勒比尺度的推论，包括珊瑚的生理能力，从而提高珊瑚礁管理的区域。珊瑚礁是在重大风险，由于各种地方和全球规模的人为压力。虽然各种压力因素导致珊瑚礁健康状况下降，但最近的研究强调，由于大气二氧化碳浓度增加，海水温度上升是影响珊瑚生长率的最重要压力因素之一。然而，有越来越多的认识到的问题的规模，因为珊瑚的生长反应的环境压力可能是有条件的规模的描述。本研究将探讨以下研究问题：（1）海水温度对珊瑚礁生态系统（美国佛罗里达礁区;伯利兹的伯利兹堡礁系统;巴拿马的博卡斯德尔托罗礁群）、珊瑚礁群落（近岸和离岸珊瑚礁）、珊瑚礁种群（个体珊瑚礁）和近珊瑚礁群落（个体群落）的影响在过去是如何变化的？(2)海水温度如何影响珊瑚的生长速度，以及海水温度与珊瑚生长的关系在这四个生态空间尺度上如何变化？(3)海水温度-珊瑚生长关系是否预测了在四个生态空间尺度上预测的世纪末海洋变暖下的珊瑚生长率？长期的海表温度记录和小规模高分辨率的海水温度测量将与造礁珊瑚Siderastrea siderea和Orbicella faveolata的生长年表进行比较，这两个关键物种在整个加勒比海无处不在。将通过卫星观测、现场测量和既定的比色方案对养分和辐照度进行量化。将结合实地和实验室实验，在四个生态相关的空间尺度上研究最近和预测的世纪末海洋变暖情况下海水温度与珊瑚生长的关系。这项研究的结果将有助于我们弥合生态相关空间尺度上的温度-珊瑚生长反应差距，从而提高我们对珊瑚如何应对近期变暖的理解。这将导致对未来珊瑚生长对气候变化的反应进行更有意义的预测。

Rising global ocean surface temperatures have reduced coral growth rates, thereby negatively impacting the health of coral reef ecosystems worldwide. Recent studies on tropical reef building corals reveal that corals' growth in response to ocean warming may be influenced by their previous seawater temperature exposure - their thermal history. Although these recent findings highlight significant variability in coral growth in response to climate change, uncertainty remains as to the spatial scale at which corals' thermal history influences how they have responded to ocean warming and how they will likely respond to predicted future increases in ocean temperature. This study investigates the influence of thermal history on coral growth in response to recent and predicted seawater temperatures increases across four ecologically relevant spatial scales ranging from reef ecosystems, to reef communities, to reef populations, to an individual coral colony. By understanding how corals have responded in the past across a range of ecological scales, the Principal Investigator will be able to improve the ability to predict their susceptibility and resilience, which could then be applied to coral reef conservation in the face of climate change. This research project will broaden the participation of undergraduates from underrepresented groups and educate public radio listeners using minority voices and narratives. The scientist will leverage current and new partnerships to recruit and train minority undergraduates, thus allowing them to engage high school students near field sites in Florida, Belize, and Panama. Through peer advising, undergraduates will document this research on a digital news site for dissemination to the public. The voice of the undergraduates and scientist will ground the production of a public radio feature exploring the topic of acclimatization and resilience - a capacity for stress tolerance within coral reef ecosystems. This project will provide a postdoctoral researcher and several graduate students with opportunities for field and laboratory research training, teaching and mentoring, and professional development. The results will allow policy makers from Florida, the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System countries, and several Central American countries to benefit from Caribbean-scale inferences that incorporate corals' physiological abilities, thereby improving coral reef management for the region.Coral reefs are at significant risk due to a variety of local and global scale anthropogenic stressors. Although various stressors contribute to the observed decline in coral reef health, recent studies highlight rising seawater temperatures due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration as one of the most significant stressors influencing coral growth rates. However, there is increasing recognition of problems of scale since a coral's growth response to an environmental stressor may be conditional on the scale of description. This research will investigate the following research questions: (1) How has seawater temperature on reef ecosystems (Florida Keys Reef Tract, USA; Belize Barrier Reef System, Belize; and Bocas Del Toro Reef Complex, Panama), reef communities (inshore and offshore reefs), reef populations (individual reefs), and near reef colonies (individual colonies), varied in the past? (2) How has seawater temperature influenced rates of coral growth and how does the seawater temperature-coral growth relationship vary across these four ecological spatial scales? (3) Does the seawater temperature-coral growth relationship forecast rates of coral growth under predicted end-of-century ocean warming at the four ecological spatial scales? Long term sea surface temperature records and small-scale high-resolution in situ seawater temperature measurements will be compared with growth chronologies for the reef building corals Siderastrea siderea and Orbicella faveolata, two keystone species ubiquitously distributed throughout the Caribbean Sea. Nutrients and irradiance will be quantified via satellite-derived observations, in situ measurements, and established colorimetric protocols. Field and laboratory experiments will be combined to examine seawater temperature-coral growth relationships under recent and predicted end-of-century ocean warming at four ecologically relevant spatial scales. The findings of this study will help us bridge the temperature-coral growth response gap across ecologically relevant spatial scales and thus improve our understanding of how corals have responded to recent warming. This will lead to more meaningful predictions about future coral growth response to climate change.