Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Kids in Adult Jails: The Short, Medium and Long Run Impacts of Prosecuting Juveniles as Adults

在刑事司法系统眼中，青少年被视为成年人的年龄在不同的州和不同的州内差别很大。如果作为成年人受审，青少年将面临截然不同的后果：更高的监禁概率，更长的刑期，更少的改过自新计划，成人犯罪记录，以及更多与成年罪犯的接触。PI建议使用工具变量研究设计来评估将青少年作为成年人起诉的因果影响。利用佛罗里达州的数据，PI将研究犯罪、高中毕业、高等教育、工资和失业。关于这两个司法系统如何影响未来结果，各种理论提供了相互竞争的预测。一方面，“特定威慑”理论预测，成年人被监禁的更大不快将仅仅通过增加他再次被监禁的预期成本来阻止年轻人未来的犯罪。另一方面，同伴影响力理论预测，由于犯罪技能转移、持续的网络形成或态度和偏好的社会传染，接触年龄较大、更有犯罪经验的同伴会增加获释后犯罪的可能性。将犯罪和合法就业视为替代品的理论也会预期成年人起诉会出现更糟糕的结果，因为接受教育和职业培训的机会减少，以及成年人犯罪记录的负担。最后，那些强调非认知特征在犯罪中的作用的人会预测，青少年设施中可用的康复计划将对未来的结果有利。虽然所有这些理论都提供了可信的论点，但要确定哪种效应在实践中占主导地位，实证研究是必要的。之前对这一问题的研究大多使用配对比较；尽管他们发现成人监禁的有害影响，但尚不清楚研究策略是否成功地消除了所有选择偏见。这项工作将通过使用不考虑选择偏见的研究设计来估计起诉青少年作为成年人的因果影响，从而为文献做出贡献。目前有700多万美国人受到惩教监督，其中少数族裔的比例不成比例。虽然成人监禁的费用很高，但青少年监禁的费用更高，平均每人每年8万美元。与此同时，心理学和神经科学的研究表明，青少年在很大程度上仍处于形成阶段，这意味着对影响青少年的矫正政策的改进可能会产生广泛的好处。

The age at which an adolescent is viewed as an adult in the eyes of the criminal justice system varies widely both across and within different states. If tried as an adult, the adolescent faces dramatically different consequences: higher probabilities of incarceration, longer sentences, less rehabilitative programming, an adult criminal record, and increased exposure to adult criminals. The PI proposes to estimate the causal impact of prosecuting an adolescent as an adult, using an instrumental variables research design. Using data from the state of Florida the PI will study crime, high school graduation, post-secondary education, wages, and unemployment. A variety of theories offer competing predictions as to how these two justice systems affect future outcomes. On the one hand, the `specific deterrence' theory predicts that the greater unpleasantness of adult incarceration will deter the youth from future crime simply by increasing his expected cost of re-incarceration. On the other hand, theories of peer influence predict that exposure to older, more criminally experienced peers will increase the likelihood of crime after release due to either criminal skill transfer, persistent network formation, or social contagion of attitudes and preferences. Theories which view crime and legal employment as substitutes would also expect worse outcomes from adult prosecution due to the decreased access to education and vocational training as well the burdens of an adult criminal record. Finally, those that emphasize the role that noncognitive traits have in crime would predict that the rehabilitative programming available in juvenile facilities would be beneficial for future outcomes. While all of these theories offer plausible arguments, empirical research is necessary to determine which effect dominates in practice. Previous research examining this question has largely used matched comparisons; while they find detrimental effects of adult incarceration, it is unclear whether the research strategies have been successful in eliminating all selection bias. This work will contribute to the literature by estimating the causal impact of prosecuting an adolescent as an adult, using a research design in which selection bias is not a concern. There are currently more than 7 million Americans under correctional supervision, with minorities disproportionately represented. While adult incarceration is expensive, juvenile incarceration is even more so, averaging $80,000 per person per year. At the same time, research in psychology and neurosciences suggests that adolescents are still very much in a formative stage, implying that improvements to correctional policies which affect teenagers may have wide reaching benefit.