EAPSI: Identifying Dominant Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Leading to Extreme Precipitation in Mid-Latitudes

该奖项支持调查中纬度地区极端降水的统计可预测性的研究。在中纬度地区（如美国地区）增加极端降水机会的大气环流将被统计总结，并用于提高洪水预测技术。这项工作有可能提高洪水风险评估和预测的准确性，以及建模者提前一周预测中纬度极端降水事件的能力。这种改进可以改善洪水易发地区基础设施规划和早期预警系统的决策。该项目将与全北国立大学风险预防中心的Kwon Hyun-Han博士和土木工程系合作进行。权博士是大空间尺度水文建模专家。这项工作将应用非线性降维技术来表征和分类导致中纬度极端降水的潜在大气变量（如压力、温度和湿度）的时空结构。这项工作旨在为极端降雨机制的研究提供一个基准，从而有利于统计和动态建模计划，以寻求1)在每日到每周的时间尺度上预测极端降水，以及2)评估特定地区洪水的潜在风险。该项目将侧重于热带水汽输送到特定的中纬度地区（美国东北部和韩国中部），同时也寻求将统计模型与大气环流联系起来的通用产品。此外，建立极端降水对大气条件的条件依赖性，将有助于对气候变化中的未来风险进行更有意义的外推。该研究由美国国家科学基金会和韩国国家研究基金会共同资助。

This award supports research to investigate the statistical predictability of extreme precipitation in mid-latitude locations. Atmospheric circulations that enhance the chance of extreme precipitation in mid-latitude locations (e.g. regions of the United States of America) will be statistically summarized and used to advance flood prediction techniques. The work has the potential to improve the accuracy of flood risk assessments and projections, as well as the ability of modelers to forecast mid-latitude extreme precipitation events up to a week in advance. Such improvements could allow for improved decision-making in infrastructure planning and early warning systems in flood prone areas. The project will be conducted in collaboration with Dr. Hyun-Han Kwon at the Risk Prevention Center and the Department of Civil Engineering at Chonbuk National University in South Korea. Dr. Kwon is an expert in hydrological modeling at large spatial scales.The work will apply nonlinear dimensional reduction techniques to characterize and classify spatio-temporal structures of the underlying atmospheric variables (e.g. pressure, temperature, and humidity) leading to mid-latitude extreme precipitation. This work aims to provide a benchmark for studies of extreme rainfall mechanisms that can benefit both statistical and dynamical modeling initiatives that seek to 1) forecast extreme precipitation on the daily to weekly timescales, and 2) assess the underlying risk of flooding in a specific region. This project will focus on tropical moisture transports to specific mid-latitude locations (the Northeast US and central Korea), while also pursuing a generalizable product for linking statistical models to atmospheric circulations. Moreover, establishing the conditional dependence of extreme precipitation on atmospheric conditions will allow for more meaningful extrapolation of future risks in a changing climate.This research is funded jointly by NSF and the National Research Foundation of Korea.