Collaborative Research: Development, Experimental Validation and Case Studies for the Next Generation of Landslide Tsunami Models for Coastal Hazard Mitigation

海啸给人口稠密的沿海地区造成重大地质灾害。减少海啸风险对社会很重要，需要准确的震源预测和建模，包括在一些地区(如美国东海岸)普遍存在的非地震近场震源，如海底质量故障(SMFS)，并使用传播模型进行抬升/淹没测绘。海啸淹没地图可用于制定或修订分区计划，以提高沿海社区的复原力。该项目开发的方法将改进从地下滑坡(起源于水位以上)和SMFS进行的海啸危险评估和预警，并可被用作此类分析的新标准，用于业务海啸危险评估和淹没测绘工作(例如，在美国国家海啸灾害缓解计划的支持下进行的工作)，以及用于非地震近场来源的新海啸预警系统；这最终可以拯救生命。项目组将与外国合作伙伴(法国马赛大学、英国邓迪大学和英国地质调查局)合作，开发、实施和实验验证可变形山体滑坡和由此产生的海啸的下一代模型。将考虑进入水柱的水下滑梯以及源自水下的SMF。项目组将研究一系列滑动流变学，特别是膨胀颗粒流和碎裂的块状粘性土层。还将研究现代计算方法，如基于GPGPU的格子Boltzmann格式，目的是提高模型效率，使模型能够在近场事件期间进行比实时更快的模拟，以便发出早期预警。在这方面，将结合目前在高频雷达和水声探测方法方面的并行工作，研究海底运动和面波响应的模型预测。将与英国地质调查局合作，将新的模型应用于历史上的滑坡海啸案例研究，其中测量了海啸的影响(PNG 1998、Unimak 1946和Ritter Island 1888事件)，以便更好地理解和模拟滑坡海啸的产生，并制定可用于模型验证的实地基准。

Tsunamis create major geohazards for highly populated coastal areas. Mitigating tsunami risks is important for society and requires accurate source forecasting and modeling, including non-seismic near-field sources such as Submarine Mass Failures (SMFs), which are prevalent in some areas (such as the US East Coast), and performing runup/inundation mapping using propagation models. Tsunami inundation maps can be used to develop or revise zoning plans in order to make coastal communities more resilient. The methods developed in this project will improve tsunami hazard assessment and warning from subaerial slides (originating above water level) and SMFs, and could be adopted as the new standard for such analyses, in operational tsunami hazard assessment and inundation mapping work (e.g., such as done under the auspice of the US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation program), and in new tsunami warning systems for non-seismic near-field sources; this could ultimately save lives. The project team will collaborate with foreign partners (at the University of Marseille (France), University of Dundee (UK), and British Geological Survey (BGS, UK)) to develop, implement, and experimentally validate the next generation models for deformable landslides and resulting tsunami generation. Subaerial slides entering the water column as well as SMFs originating underwater will be considered. The project team will study a range of slide rheologies, with particular interest in dilatational granular flows and in fragmenting, blocky cohesive soil layers.te Modern computational methods such as GPGPU-based Lattice Boltzmann schemes, will also be investigated with an aim to improving model efficiency and making models able to perform faster-than-real time simulations during near-field events, in order to issue early warning. In this respect, model predictions of seafloor motion and surface wave response will be studied in light of ongoing parallel efforts on High Frequency Radar and hydroacoustic detection methodologies. In collaboration with the BGS, new models will be applied to historical landslide tsunami case studies, where tsunami impact was measured (PNG 1998, Unimak 1946, and Ritter Island 1888 events), in order to achieve both a better understanding and modeling of landslide tsunami generation, as well as developing field benchmarks that can be used for model validation.