CRISP Type 2: Resilient Cyber-Enabled Electric Energy and Water Infrastructures: Modeling and Control under Extreme Mega Drought Scenarios

1541026（维塔尔）。弹性、可靠和高效的关键基础设施对于现代社会的繁荣和进步至关重要。电网和供水系统是最重要的基础设施。它们是高度自动化和相互依赖的。一系列传感器、通信资源、控制和信息系统共同组成了网络，这些网络是这些基础设施的组成部分，有助于其高效、可靠和安全的运行。该项目将（1）建立数学模型，捕捉电力和水系统之间的相互依赖关系，并及时模拟其运行，（2）开发极端情况下消费者对电力和水需求的创新行为模型，（3）模拟这些极端情况下的需求，并提出控制措施，以减轻不利影响，以及（4）使用中间件网关部署实现两个基础设施的网络系统之间的互联，并在仿真中对其进行仿真，以确定在极端场景下来自传感器的共享信息对控制动作的影响。随着预测的大干旱在西南部，一个相互依存的模型，提出了预计将显着受益于电力和供水公用事业，通过提高他们的能力，执行情景分析加上消费者的使用数据，以确定严重干旱对每个基础设施系统的影响，并造福于整个社会。这两个系统的相互控制将有助于优化用水和发电，以科普严峻的环境条件。对极端条件下影响水电使用行为反应的因素有一个清晰的认识，将为政府、供应商和公众提供有效的方法来应对特大干旱等现实世界的挑战。这项工作的结果，包括基于现实数据的最佳测试，将为保护电力和水资源方面的社会实践和行为变化提出战略建议。该项目将为两个相互依赖的关键基础设施系统（即电力和供水）开发一个基于系统动力学的数学模型，并确定这两个系统之间的关键相互依赖关系。该研究的总体目标是将当今相互依赖但“独立运营”的基础设施系统转变为弹性基础设施，通过互联网络实现高效的信息交换，可以使用消费者需求和复杂控制的创新行为模型来处理预测的极端情况。包括以下研究和教育任务。任务1：开发基于系统动力学的相互依赖基础设施的数学模型。(a)电力基础设施，（B）供水和处理基础设施，（c）确定其相互依存关系，（d）模拟相互依存的系统。任务二：极端情景，基于社会/行为模型的应急选择和分析（a）极端情景下基础设施供应商品的消费者需求行为模型。(b)相互依赖系统的风险评估和极端情景下的应急选择。(c)在极端情景和相关意外情况下的模型分析。任务三：相互依赖基础设施的分析和控制（a）相互依赖控制的制定，（B）设计控制的实施和模拟，（c）检查控制减轻极端情况有害影响的能力。任务四：用于基础设施信息系统之间的互联网络的最佳中间件网关部署（a）中间件开发和仿真，（B）使用中间件启用的共享信息的控制实现以及与任务3中的独立信息设置的控制功效的比较。教育推广将研究纳入教育和推广活动，包括（i）跨学科研究生课程，（ii）为行业合作伙伴提供短期课程和网络研讨会，（iii）关于相互依存基础设施的自学模块，以及（iv）基于网络的极端情况模块开发和K-12学生基础设施系统的操作。

1541026 (Vittal). Resilient, reliable and efficient critical infrastructures are essential for the prosperity and advancement of modern society. The electric power grid and the water distribution system are among the most critical infrastructures. They are highly automated and interdependent. A range of sensors, communication resources, control and information systems together form the cyber networks that are an integral part of these infrastructures and contribute to their efficient, reliable, and safe operation. This project will (1) build mathematical models capturing the interdependencies between the electric and water systems and simulate their operation in time, (2) develop innovative behavioral models of consumer demand for electricity and water under extreme scenarios, (3) simulate demand under these extreme scenarios and propose control actions to mitigate detrimental impacts, and (4) enable internetworking between the cyber systems of the two infrastructures using middleware gateway deployment and emulate it in simulation to determine the effect of the shared information from sensors on the control actions under the extreme scenarios. With the predicted mega droughts in the southwest, an interdependent model as proposed is expected to significantly benefit electric and water utilities by enhancing their ability to perform scenario analysis coupled with consumer usage data to determine the impacts of severe droughts on each of the infrastructure systems and benefit society at large. Interdependent control of the two systems will help optimize water usage and electricity production to cope with severe environmental conditions. A clear understanding of the factors that impact behavioral responses to water and electricity use under extreme conditions will inform governments, suppliers, and the public about effective methods to address real-world challenges such as mega droughts. Findings of this work, including a test best based on realistic data, will suggest strategies for informing social practices and behavioral changes in conserving electricity and water resources. These capabilities could provide significant benefits to nations across the world and enhance sustainability of scarce natural resources.The project will develop a system dynamics-based mathematical model of two interdependent critical infrastructure systems, namely electric energy and water supply, and identify key interdependencies between the two systems. The overarching goal of the research is to transform interdependent but "independently operated" infrastructure systems of today into resilient infrastructures, through efficient information exchange enabled by inter-networking that can handle forecasted extreme scenarios using innovative behavioral models of consumer demand and sophisticated control. The following research and educational tasks are included. Task 1: Development of a system dynamics based mathematical model of the interdependent infrastructures. (a) Electric infrastructure, (b) Water delivery and treatment infrastructure, (c) Identification of their interdependencies, and (d) Simulation of interdependent systems. Task 2: Extreme Scenario, social/behavioral model based contingency selection and analysis (a) Behavioral model of consumer demand of commodities supplied by infrastructure under extreme scenarios. (b) Risk assessment of interdependent system and contingency selection for extreme scenarios. (c) Analysis of model under extreme scenarios and associated contingencies. Task 3: Analysis and control of interdependent infrastructures (a) Formulation of interdependent control, (b) Implementation and simulation of designed control, (c) Examination of the ability of control to mitigate detrimental effects of extreme scenarios. Task 4: Optimal middleware gateway deployment for inter-networking between infrastructure information systems (a) Middleware development and emulation, (b) Control implementation with middleware-enabled shared information and comparison of control efficacy with the independent information setting in Task 3. Educational outreach integrates research into education and outreach by (i) Interdisciplinary graduate course offering, (ii) Short course and webinars for industry partners, (iii) Self-study modules on interdependent infrastructures and (iv) Web based module development of extreme scenarios and operation of infrastructure systems for K-12 students.