Doctoral Dissertation Research: State Power, Road Development and Internal Violence

本项目解决了以下问题：在什么条件下增加国家安全部队的存在和领土范围会增加民众对国家的支持？许多学者和政策制定者认为，叛乱在国家缺席的地区蓬勃发展。传统观点认为，在这些抵抗地区增加国家安全部队的存在可以提高政权的合法性，并有助于将民众的支持转向国家。然而，关于国家权力和领土范围的影响的经验证据显然是混合的。PI认为，国家强制力和周围的非战斗人员的支持的社会动态之间的相互作用的影响如何在国家存在的增加影响许多国内冲突的动态和民众的支持，特别是。如果叛乱分子利用共同的种族身份来动员民众的支持，国家安全部队的入侵将使该组织的动员叙述得到证实，从而减少对国家的支持。然而，当叛乱分子在其动员叙述中诉诸共同的意识形态时，国家安全部队的增加可以有效地阻止民众支持叛乱运动。这两种类型的叛乱冲突决定了安全部队的存在与国家的支持之间的关系。该项目利用了印度政府于2000年颁布的一项独特的农村道路发展计划，而该州目前在印度中部面临着种族动机的叛乱团体。该项目延伸到印度中部的比哈尔邦，进行一项调查，衡量（1）农村道路发展项目如何/是否增加了国家安全部队在动乱地区的存在，以及（2）这种增加的存在是否影响了民众支持的平衡。在阿萨姆邦的初步调查（在2015年夏天进行）提供了支持的假设，即在种族冲突中，国家的存在减少了民众的支持。在目前的研究中，调查将评估军队和警察巡逻频率的增加是否会增加民众对意识形态冲突国家的支持。该项目对受冲突影响地区的村庄住户进行调查。这些村庄有同等的可能性获得道路建设的待遇。一半的那些村庄接受了治疗，另一半则没有。为了避免社会期望偏差，PI使用项目计数问题以及精英访谈。PI然后在粗化精确匹配研究设计中使用这些数据来表明：（1）道路开发增加了国家巡逻区域的频率，以及（2）这种增加的存在有助于降低民族冲突中对国家的支持，并增加意识形态驱动的冲突中的民众支持。在这样做的过程中，这个项目为这些日益重要的反叛乱战术和战略提供了一个重要的考验。

General SummaryThis project addresses the following question: Under what conditions do increases in the presence and territorial reach of a state's security forces increase popular support for the state? Many academics and policymakers argue that insurgencies thrive in areas where the state is absent. The conventional wisdom is that increasing the presence of state security forces in these resistive areas improves the legitimacy of the regime and serve to shift popular support in the state's favor. However, the empirical evidence concerning the effects of state power and territorial reach is decidedly mixed. The PI argues that the interaction between state coercive power and the social dynamics surrounding noncombatant support influence how increases in state presence affect many civil conflict dynamic and popular support in particular. If insurgents leverage a shared ethnicity identity to mobilize popular support, the encroachment of state security forces will validate the group's mobilization narrative, decreasing support for the state. However, when insurgents use appeals to a common ideology in their mobilization narratives, an increased presence of state security forces can effectively deter the population from supporting an insurgent movement. These two types of insurgent conflicts condition the relationship between the presence of security forces and support of the state. Technical SummaryThis project leverages a unique rural road development program the government of India enacted in 2000, while the state currently faces ethnically motivated insurgent groups in central India. This project extends to the central Indian state of Bihar a survey measuring (1) how/if rural road development projects increase the presence of state security forces in troubled areas and (2) if this increased presence affects the balance of popular support. An initial survey in the state of Assam (conducted during the summer of 2015) provided support for the hypothesis that in ethnic conflicts state presence decreases popular support. In the current study, the survey will assess whether increases in the frequency of military and police patrols increase popular support for the state in ideological conflict. This project surveys households in villages across conflict-affected districts. These villages had an equal probability of receiving the treatment of road construction. Half the villages received the treatment, while half did not. To avoid social desirability bias, the PI uses item-count questions as well as elite interviews. The PI then uses these data in a Coarsened Exact Matching research design to show (1) that road development increases the frequency in which the state patrols an area, and (2) that this increased presence works to drive down support for the state in ethnically-motivated conflicts and increases popular support in ideologically-driven conflicts. In doing so, this project provides an important test of these increasingly important counterinsurgent tactics and strategies.