Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Insurgency, Security Sector Reform, and Local Support

面临新一轮国内冲突风险的国家能否通过使用不同的国内安全部门改革来防止叛乱暴力？这个项目解决了在完成国内安全部门改革和影响公民对国家的支持方面的一个根本问题：军事化的安全部门太多标志着国家的保护能力，但也标志着国家滥用的能力，而非军事化的安全部门太多表明国家没有能力滥用权力，但也没有能力保护。为了在这一问题的背景下了解民间对政府的支持，该项目在利比里亚进行了一项新的实地试验，以确定是侧重于保护的安全部门改革(武装安全部门等军事化改革)还是侧重重建信任的非军事化改革(非军事化改革，如让更多妇女进入安全部门)是否会增强人们的看法并增加当地的支持。该项目建立在以前与利比里亚国家警察(利比里亚国家警察)合作的基础上，并将利比里亚国家警察的外联工作随机安排到利比里亚农村的80个社区。社区将接受武装男性、手无寸铁的男性、武装的女性或手无寸铁的女性警察的探访。在访问过程中和两周后，联合PI将衡量个人对LNP和政府机构的看法以及社区对LNP的支持。该项目的学术价值在于增进对改革国内安全部队如何导致预防冲突和巩固国家的理解。虽然人们对防止内战再次爆发和反叛乱战略对暴力的影响给予了很大关注，但很少注意了解国内安全部门改革如何直接增强平民的看法和增加对政府的文职支持。目前的文献发现，安全部门改革在防止内战再次爆发方面发挥了作用，地方对政府的支持有助于平息叛乱，但这些文献没有具体说明哪些安全部门改革有助于防止叛乱，也没有将安全部门改革与平民支持直接联系起来。该项目开发了安全部门改革的总体理论，特别是提出了一些假设，即鉴于一些改革可能会引发对政府滥用的恐惧，或对政府无力保护的恐惧，改革可能会或多或少地导致民众对政府的支持。该项目还分析了性别在安全研究中的重要性，这是冲突文献中经常被忽视的一个角度。关于安全部门性别平衡改革如何影响当地的看法和支持，尚无系统的实证研究。此外，实地试验首次将政府安全部队的实际部署随机化，并可作为未来政府改革对公民感知和行为影响的微观分析的模型。了解哪些类型的国内安全部门改革为政府安全部队提供支持对于更广泛的政策制定非常重要。目前，利比里亚国家警察部署了一组武装的男性警官在农村县巡逻，坊间证据表明，这些巡逻在民众中造成了对虐待的恐惧。因此，了解哪些类型的改革实际上缓解了恐惧，并增强了人们的看法和支持，这对冲突后国家的政策制定至关重要。更广泛地说，鉴于美国和联合国已花费数十亿美元重组各种安全部队，了解哪些类型的改革在防止未来冲突方面取得成功是至关重要的。该项目将向政策分析员通报可能获得当地支持的改革，从而帮助防止叛乱团体的增长。此外，该项目还可通过展示性别平衡政策在加强安全方面的潜在益处，帮助改善冲突后国家的两性平等。鉴于联合PI已经与利比里亚国家警察合作了两年多的几个项目，并与联合国利比里亚特派团(联利特派团)的成员建立了关系，该项目的成果将在联合国、利比里亚国家警察和更广泛的利比里亚公众中传播，以便将更多的资源投入到改善对利比里亚政府文职支持的政策上。

Can states at risk of experiencing renewed civil conflict prevent insurgent violence through the use of different domestic security sector reforms? This project addresses a fundamental problem in accomplishing domestic security sector reforms and influencing civilian support for the state: too much of a militarized security sector signals the state's ability to protect, but also the state's ability to abuse, and too much of a demilitarized security sector signals the state's inability to abuse, but also its inability to protect. In order to understand civilian support for the government in the context of the problem, the project uses a novel field experiment in Liberia to determine whether security sector reforms that focus on protection (militarized reforms such as arming the security sector) or those that focus on rebuilding trust (demilitarized reforms such as including more women in the security sector) enhance perceptions and increase local support. The project builds on previous work with the Liberian National Police (LNP) and randomizes LNP outreach to eighty communities in rural Liberia. Communities are to receive visits by armed male, unarmed male, armed female, or unarmed female police officers. During the visits and after a period of two weeks, the co-PI will measure individual perceptions toward the LNP and government institutions and community support for the LNP. The intellectual merit of the project is associated with enhancing understanding of how reforming domestic security forces leads to conflict prevention and state consolidation. While much attention has been placed on the prevention of civil war recurrence and the effects of counterinsurgency strategies on violence, little attention has been direct to understanding how domestic security sector reforms directly enhance civilian perceptions and increase civilian support for the government. The current literature finds that security sector reform plays a role in preventing civil war recurrence and that local support for the government helps counterinsurgency efforts, but this literature does not specify which security sector reforms help prevent insurgency nor directly links security sector reform to civilian support. This project develops an overarching theory of security sector reform, specifically developing hypotheses about which reforms may lead to more or less civilian support for the government given that some reforms may generate fear of government abuse, or fear of the government's inability to protect. The project also analyzes the importance of gender in security studies, an angle that is often neglected in the conflict literature. There have been no systematic empirical studies on how gender-balancing reforms in the security sector impact local perceptions and support. Moreover, the field experiment is the first to randomize actual deployment of government security forces and could serve as a model for future micro-level analysis on the impact of governmental reforms on civilian perceptions and behavior.Understanding which types of domestic security sector reforms generate support for government security forces is very important for broader policy making. Currently, the LNP deploys groups of armed, male officers on patrols in rural counties, and anecdotal evidence suggests that these patrols create fear of abuse in the population. Thus, understanding which types of reforms actually mitigate fears and enhance perceptions and support becomes critical for policymaking in post-conflict states. More broadly, given that the United States and UN have spent billions of dollars restructuring various security forces, it is imperative to know which types of reforms are successful in preventing future conflict. This project will inform policy analysts about reforms that may generate local support and consequently help prevent the growth of insurgent groups. Additionally, the project may help to improve gender equality in post-conflict countries by demonstrating the potential benefits of gender balancing policies on enhancing security. Given that the co-PI has already worked on several projects with the LNP for over two years, and has established relationships with members of the UN Mission to Liberia (UNMIL), the results of the project will be disseminated throughout the UN, the LNP, and the broader Liberian public so that more resources can be devoted to policies that improve civilian support of the Liberian government.