Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Insurgency, Security Sector Reform, and Local Support

政治学博士论文研究：叛乱、安全部门改革和地方支持

• 批准号: 1424016
• 负责人: Dan Reiter
• 金额: $ 1.76万
• 依托单位: Emory University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2016-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1424016&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Political; Science

Can states at risk of experiencing renewed civil conflict prevent insurgent violence through the use of different domestic security sector reforms? This project addresses a fundamental problem in accomplishing domestic security sector reforms and influencing civilian support for the state: too much of a militarized security sector signals the state's ability to protect, but also the state's ability to abuse, and too much of a demilitarized security sector signals the state's inability to abuse, but also its inability to protect. In order to understand civilian support for the government in the context of the problem, the project uses a novel field experiment in Liberia to determine whether security sector reforms that focus on protection (militarized reforms such as arming the security sector) or those that focus on rebuilding trust (demilitarized reforms such as including more women in the security sector) enhance perceptions and increase local support. The project builds on previous work with the Liberian National Police (LNP) and randomizes LNP outreach to eighty communities in rural Liberia. Communities are to receive visits by armed male, unarmed male, armed female, or unarmed female police officers. During the visits and after a period of two weeks, the co-PI will measure individual perceptions toward the LNP and government institutions and community support for the LNP. The intellectual merit of the project is associated with enhancing understanding of how reforming domestic security forces leads to conflict prevention and state consolidation. While much attention has been placed on the prevention of civil war recurrence and the effects of counterinsurgency strategies on violence, little attention has been direct to understanding how domestic security sector reforms directly enhance civilian perceptions and increase civilian support for the government. The current literature finds that security sector reform plays a role in preventing civil war recurrence and that local support for the government helps counterinsurgency efforts, but this literature does not specify which security sector reforms help prevent insurgency nor directly links security sector reform to civilian support. This project develops an overarching theory of security sector reform, specifically developing hypotheses about which reforms may lead to more or less civilian support for the government given that some reforms may generate fear of government abuse, or fear of the government's inability to protect. The project also analyzes the importance of gender in security studies, an angle that is often neglected in the conflict literature. There have been no systematic empirical studies on how gender-balancing reforms in the security sector impact local perceptions and support. Moreover, the field experiment is the first to randomize actual deployment of government security forces and could serve as a model for future micro-level analysis on the impact of governmental reforms on civilian perceptions and behavior.Understanding which types of domestic security sector reforms generate support for government security forces is very important for broader policy making. Currently, the LNP deploys groups of armed, male officers on patrols in rural counties, and anecdotal evidence suggests that these patrols create fear of abuse in the population. Thus, understanding which types of reforms actually mitigate fears and enhance perceptions and support becomes critical for policymaking in post-conflict states. More broadly, given that the United States and UN have spent billions of dollars restructuring various security forces, it is imperative to know which types of reforms are successful in preventing future conflict. This project will inform policy analysts about reforms that may generate local support and consequently help prevent the growth of insurgent groups. Additionally, the project may help to improve gender equality in post-conflict countries by demonstrating the potential benefits of gender balancing policies on enhancing security. Given that the co-PI has already worked on several projects with the LNP for over two years, and has established relationships with members of the UN Mission to Liberia (UNMIL), the results of the project will be disseminated throughout the UN, the LNP, and the broader Liberian public so that more resources can be devoted to policies that improve civilian support of the Liberian government.

有可能再次发生国内冲突的国家能否通过采用不同的国内安全部门改革来防止叛乱暴力？该项目解决了在完成国内安全部门改革和影响平民对国家的支持方面的一个根本问题：军事化程度太高的安全部门表明国家有能力保护，但也表明国家有能力滥用，而非军事化程度太高的安全部门表明国家没有能力滥用，但也没有能力保护。为了了解平民在这一问题背景下对政府的支持，该项目在利比里亚进行了一次新的实地试验，以确定侧重于保护的安全部门改革（军事化改革，如武装安全部门）或侧重于重建信任的安全部门改革（非军事化改革，如在安全部门纳入更多妇女）是否会增强人们的看法并增加当地的支持。该项目以先前与利比里亚国家警察开展的工作为基础，随机将利比里亚国家警察的外联活动扩大到利比里亚农村的80个社区。社区将接受武装男性、非武装男性、武装女性或非武装女性警官的访问。在访问期间和两周后，共同PI将衡量个人对利比里亚国家警察和政府机构的看法以及社区对利比里亚国家警察的支持。 该项目的智力价值在于提高对国内安全部队改革如何导致预防冲突和巩固国家的认识。虽然对防止内战复发和反叛乱战略对暴力的影响给予了很大关注，但很少有人直接关注国内安全部门改革如何直接提高平民的看法和增加平民对政府的支持。目前的文献发现，安全部门改革在防止内战复发方面发挥了作用，当地对政府的支持有助于反叛乱努力，但这些文献没有具体说明哪些安全部门改革有助于防止叛乱，也没有将安全部门改革与平民支持直接联系起来。该项目发展了一个安全部门改革的总体理论，特别是发展假设，哪些改革可能会导致更多或更少的平民支持政府，因为一些改革可能会产生对政府滥用权力的恐惧，或对政府无力保护的恐惧。该项目还分析了性别在安全研究中的重要性，这是一个在冲突文献中经常被忽视的角度。关于安全部门的性别均衡改革如何影响当地的看法和支持，还没有系统的经验研究。此外，实地实验首次随机化了政府安全部队的实际部署，可以作为今后分析政府改革对平民的看法和行为的影响的微观层面的模型。了解哪种类型的国内安全部门改革会产生对政府安全部队的支持，对于更广泛的政策制定非常重要。目前，利比里亚国家警察在农村各州部署了几组男性武装警察巡逻，传闻证据表明，这些巡逻在民众中造成了对虐待的恐惧。因此，了解哪些类型的改革实际上减轻了恐惧，提高了认识和支持，成为冲突后国家决策的关键。更广泛地说，鉴于美国和联合国已经花费数十亿美元重组各种安全部队，必须知道哪些类型的改革在防止未来冲突方面是成功的。这一项目将使政策分析人员了解可能获得当地支持的改革，从而有助于防止叛乱团体的增长。此外，该项目通过展示性别平衡政策对加强安全的潜在好处，可能有助于改善冲突后国家的性别平等。鉴于共同新闻干事两年多来已与利比里亚国家警察合作开展了若干项目，并与联合国利比里亚使命成员建立了关系，该项目的成果将在整个联合国、利比里亚国家警察和利比里亚广大公众中传播，以便将更多的资源用于改善文职人员对利比里亚政府支持的政策。