Multiscale Models for Predicting the Effectiveness of Mitigation Efforts in Controlling Vector-Borne Epidemics

该研究项目旨在创建改进的数学模型，用于预测蚊子传播疾病的传播。这些模型可用于帮助指导公共卫生工作者提高干预战略的有效性，以减轻这些疾病的影响。该项目侧重于分析有可能优化控制基孔肯雅热、登革热和寨卡病毒的缓解战略的方法。本项目正在开发的偏微分方程蚊媒疾病传播模型将考虑蚊子种群密度和宿主种群密度的空间异质性。这项研究的目的是创建一个新的两性模型，可以解释细菌控制措施的垂直和水平传播，例如使用沃尔巴克氏体来减轻疾病的传播。这些模型的数学分析将包括对多种蚊子的模型预测中的不确定性进行量化。

This research project aims to create improved mathematical models for predicting the spread of mosquito-borne diseases. These models can be used to help guide public health workers in improving the effectiveness of intervention strategies for mitigating the impact of these diseases. The project focuses on analyzing approaches that have the potential for optimizing mitigation strategies for controlling chikungunya, dengue fever, and Zika virus. The partial differential equation mosquito-borne disease transmission models under development in this project will account for spatial heterogeneity in the population density of the mosquito and host populations. The research aims to create a new two-sex model that can account for both vertical and horizontal transmission of bacterial control measures, such as using Wolbachia to mitigate the disease spread. The mathematical analysis of these models will include quantifying the uncertainty in the model forecasts for multiple species of mosquitoes.