A functional group and life history approach to predicting plant community response to climate and land-use change

未来生态系统变化的两个主要因素是气候条件的变化和土地利用的影响。对于一个社区的特定组成部分将在多大程度上孤立地、特别是结合起来对这些因素作出反应，以及导致一个社区对这些变化产生固有阻力或脆弱性的机制，显然缺乏了解。我们提出了一种高度新颖的方法，通过将物种分类到相似的气候类型中来预测植物对气候变化的反应（例如，在干燥/温暖或潮湿/凉爽环境中更常见的物种）。与其他技术相比，这可能被证明是一种简单的应用方法，尤其适用于调查气候变化对全球植物群落影响的速度和程度。这种新颖的气候组方法被我们成功地应用于干旱环境下长期气候和放牧控制实验中群落成分的响应。尽管这些类群看起来很有用，但它们的适用性仍然存在两个明显的疑问：我们不知道1)这些模式背后的机制特征，或者2)它们是否可以应用于不同的栖息地。我们提出了一种多学科的方法来测试这些气候物种群的适当使用。利用统计分析、性状筛选和模拟建模相结合的方法，我们的目标是确定这些群体之间的植物策略的共性，这些策略可能会增加特定栖息地的抗性或脆弱性。其次，我们的目标是将这种气候组方法应用于另一项长期气候和放牧研究，研究对象是暴露于大陆性气候的截然不同的栖息地。

Two of the major contributors to future ecosystem change are alterations in the climatic conditions, and land use impacts. There is a distinct lack of understanding as to how much particular components of a community will respond to each of these elements in isolation and particularly in combination, as well as the mechanisms which lead to an inherent resistance or vulnerability of a community to that change. We propose a highly novel approach that predicts plant responses to climate change by categorizing species into groups of similar climatic type (e.g. species more commonly found in drier/warmer or wetter/cooler environments). In comparison to other techniques this could prove to be a simple to apply and particularly strong way for investigating the rate and extent of climate change effects on plant communities around the world. This novel climatic group approach was successfully employed by us to follow the response of community components in long-term climate and grazing manipulation experiments in dry environments. Although these groups appear to be useful, two clear doubts in their applicability remain: We don’t know 1) the mechanistic traits underlying the patterns or 2) that they can be applied to different habitats. We propose a multi-disciplinary approach to testing the appropriate use of these climatic species groups. Using a combination of statistical analyses, trait screening and simulation modeling, we aim to identify commonality in plant strategies among these groups which may give rise to increased resistance or vulnerability in particular habitats. Secondly, we aim to apply this climatic group approach to another long-term climate and grazing study on vastly different habitats exposed to a continental climate.